2023 NBA bets, lines and stats for Monday

There are eight games on Monday’s schedule, with six teams with a record above .500 against teams with a lower number. This results in several large spreads, including at least one situation where I advocate giving pips.

The rivalry between two .500-plus teams is also interesting, especially for the props. More on this and other angles that caught my attention below.

Dre’s favorite bets for Monday night

Denver Nuggets -8.5 over Detroit Pistons.

The two teams will play the second half of the return match after their exit on Sunday. But the Nuggets’ 12-point loss to the Cavaliers was bizarre, as Nikola Jokic was in foul trouble for most of the game. The Pistons’ 29-point loss to the Raptors became more like business as usual. Detroit has the worst record in the NBA and an average scoring margin of -6.6 ppg, while the Nuggets are still a half-game away from the best record in the Western Conference with a scoring margin of +5.6. Look for a big game for Jokic and the Nuggets on Monday night with a convincing win over the Pistons.

De’Aaron Fox over 35.5 total points + assists.

He has averaged 34.2 PPG and 6.2 APG over his past six games, topping 35.5 points and assists in four of the six games. The Kings are in the second half of a back-to-back, and Fox had 30 points and seven assists in 31 minutes on Sunday. Sacramento faces a New Orleans Pelicans team that is also on the second half of a back-to-back and ranks in the bottom half of the NBA in points (20th) and assists (17th) allowed to opposing point guards.

Miami Heat -1.5 over Chicago Bulls.

The Bulls defeated the Heat by six points on Saturday, stopping the Heat’s seven-game winning streak and ending Chicago’s three-game losing streak. However, the Heat held a 21-point lead and appeared to be in control before the Bulls pulled off a comeback. The performance of both teams heading into that game may indicate that the Heat are the better team heading into Monday night’s game. Look for the Heat to come back and pull off a solid comeback win over United Center.

Julius Randle over 20.5 points.

Randle has picked up his game in a big way after a relatively slow start to the season (13.7 PPG over his six games). He has averaged 24.3 PPG over the past two weeks with no performance under 21 points in his past seven games. Randle averaged 44.0 PPG in two games against the Timberwolves last season, and Minnesota ranks average (15th) in points allowed to power forwards.

Tonight’s lines and BPI forecast

Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics, odds by ESPN BET

Boston Celtics over Charlotte Hornets
7 p.m. Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC

Records (anti-spread)
Celtics: 11-2 (6-5-2)
Hornets: 3-9 (5-7-0)

Line: Celtics (-8.5) the total: 232.5
Money line: Celtics (-375), Hornets (+305)
BMI projection: Celtics by 8.5, up 77.6% in a row, for a total of 231.7 points.

Injury report:
Celtics: None reported
Hornets: Cody Martin (outside knee); Frank Ntilikina (out – lower leg); James Bouknight (outside – knee); Nick Richards (out – concussion); Thierry Rozier (outside thigh)

Denver Nuggets over Detroit Pistons
7 p.m.: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit

Records (anti-spread)
Nuggets: 9-4 (5-8-0)
Pistons: 2-12 (6-8-0)

Line: Nuggets (-9.5) the total: 224.5
Money line: Nuggets (-400), Pistons (+320)
BMI projection: Nuggets by 5.3, up 68.6% straight, for a total of 229.0 points.

Injury report:
Nuggets: Vlatko Kankar (outside knee); Jamal Murray (out – hamstring)
Pistons: Isaiah Liver, (GTD – Ankle); Jalen Duren (GTD – Ankle); Joe Harris (GTD – Shoulder); Killian Hayes (GTD – Shoulder); Monte Morris, (GTD – quadriceps); Bojan Bogdanovic (out – calf)

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Washington Wizards
7 p.m. Capital One Arena, Washington, DC

Records (anti-spread)
Bucks: 9-4 (4-9-0)
Wizards: 2-10 (5-7-0)

Line: Bucks (-9.5) the total: 245.5
Money line: Bucks (-425), Wizards (+340)
BMI projection: Bucks by 6.7, up 71.8% straight, for a total of 241.6 points.

Injury report:
Bucks: Jae Crowder (outside thigh); Chris Livingstone (out – ankle); Marjon Beauchamp (out – ankle)
Magicians: Johnny Davis, (GTD – Elbow); Dillon Wright (outside – knee)

Miami Heat over Chicago Bulls
8 p.m. United Center, Chicago

Records (anti-spread)
Heat: 8-5 (5-8-0)
Bulls: 5-9 (5-8-1)

Line: Temperature (-1.5) the total: 208.5
Money line: Heat (-120), Bulls (+100)
BMI projection: Heat by 1, straight by 53.6%, 218.3 total points.

Injury report:
Heat: Tyler Herro (out – ankle); RJ Hampton (outside – knee)
Bulls: Lonzo Ball, (outside – knee); Alex Caruso (GTD – Toe); Dallin Terry (GTD – Knee Head)

New York Knicks over Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m. Target Center, Minneapolis

Records (anti-spread)
Knicks: 8-5 (9-3-1)
Timberwolves: 9-3 (6-4-2)

Line: Timberwolves (-3.5) the total: 213.5
Money line: Knicks (+125), Timberwolves (-145)
BMI projection: Timberwolves by 2.1, up 57.5% in a row, for a total of 225.0 points.

Injury report:
Knicks: Evan Fournier (GTD – Ankle); Quentin Grimes, (GTD – wrist)
Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark (out – Achilles); Jordan McLaughlin (outside – knee)

The Sacramento Kings take on the New Orleans Pelicans
8 p.m. Smoothie King Center, New Orleans

Records (anti-spread)
Kings: 8-4 (8-4-0)
Pelicans: 6-7 (7-5-1)

Line: Kings (-1.5) the total: 238.5
Money line: Kings (-115), Pelicans (-105)
BMI projection: Pelicans by 2.5, straight by 58.8%, 234.9 total points.

Injury report:
Kings: Kevin Huerter, (GTD – Finger); Trey Lyles (GTD – Calf); Alex Len (out – ankle)
Pelicans: Jose Alvarado (GTD – Ankle); C.J. McCollum (out – chest); Trey Murphy III (outside knee); Larry Nance Jr. (OUT – REPS)

Los Angeles Clippers vs. San Antonio Spurs
8 p.m. Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Records (anti-spread)
Clippers: 4-7 (4-7-0)
Tottenham: 3-10 (3-9-1)

Line: Clippers (-8.5) the total: 230.5
Money line: Clippers (-360), Spurs (+290)
BMI projection: Clippers by 8.9, straight by 78.3%, 234.6 total points.

Injury report:
Clippers: Mason Plumlee (outside knee); Brandon Boston Jr. (Outside – Quadriceps)
Tottenham: Devin Vassell (GTD – Groene)

Houston Rockets over Golden State Warriors
10pm Chase Center, San Francisco

Records (anti-spread)
Rockets: 6-5 (7-3-1)
Warriors: 6-8 (5-8-1)

Line: Warriors (-6.5) the total: 220.5
Money line: Rockets (+225), Warriors (-275)
BMI projection: Warriors by 8, straight by 76.0%, 229.7 total points.

Injury report:
Rockets: Amin Thompson (GTD – Ankle); Victor Oladipo (GTD – Knee); Tari Eason (outside – leg)
Warriors: Gary Payton II, (outside – ft.); Draymond Green, (Off – Comment)