Initially, I was upset about the NBA using Election Day as an opportunity to manage loads and not schedule any games. Then I remembered that I’ve been enjoying the NBA so far this season and maybe a night out isn’t the worst idea.
Entering Wednesday, my NBA record is 15-16 And my financing is -4.13 units (sh). Not perfect. However, there is plenty of time to get it back and I’ll start with this…
NBA Wednesday Best Bets
NBA Bet No. 1: Utah Jazz V Indiana Pacers (-6.5)7 p.m. ET
The last time I bet the Pacers on the Boston Celtics was 155-104. Sure enough, I bet on the health of the Indiana PG Therese Halliburton Who was “doubtful” for that game and did not play.
I’m ready to let bygones be bygones and relive it with the Pacers, especially with Haliburton off the injury report. Indiana is -6.5 favored, which is suspiciously high. However, the total is 243.5 as of Tuesday night and both teams are shooting 3s.
However, the Pacers are better from behind. Indiana makes 5.5 more three-pointers per game than its opponent, while Utah makes +0.9 more three-pointers per game. The Pacers lead the league in both offensive and defensive wide-open 3-point attempts rate (3PAr).
While the Jazz rank 20th in wide-open offensive 3PAr and 27th defensively. “Wide open” means there is at least six feet of distance between the three-point shooter and the closest defender.
Furthermore, Indiana’s five leaders in 3-point attempts per game are shooting at least 41.4% from 3-point range. While Utah’s only three-point shooter (PF Lauri Markkanen) with an average of better than 37% from depth.
Finally, the Jazz have performed poorly on the road so far this season. They are 0-4 straight up (SU) with an SU margin of -18.3 and 1-3 against the spread (ATS). According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Utah ranks 29th in defensive rating in away games.
My predictions: Pacers 128, Jazz 116
- Bet 1.1u on Indiana Pacers -6 (-110).
Bet No. 2: Miami Heat (-130) At Memphis Grizzlies, 8 p.m. ET
The Grizzlies have the third-highest wide open 3PAr percentage in the NBA along with the second-worst 3-point defensive percentage. The Heat are ninth in three-point shooting percentage and third in wide-open three-point shooting.
Miami has Strength over weakness He outperformed Memphis in ball security. According to CTG, the Heat are third in defensive turnover rate (TOV%) and the Grizzlies are 21st in defensive turnover rate (TOV%). Additionally, Memphis ranks 25th in points allowed per game.
The heat is great Bam Adebayo It is a better version of the Grizzlies PF Jaren Jackson Jr Adebayo is a better shooter, distributor and rebounder. Even though Jackson is the NBA Defensive Player of the Year, Bam is an even better defensive player.
Also, Jackson makes stupid mistakes and Adebayo is one of the best bigs in the NBA at calling mistakes. According to CTG, Bam had a 100% on non-shot drawn fouls and 78% on drawn shooting fouls.
Finally, Miami is a consistently elite defensive team, and Memphis has the second-worst offensive efficiency in the NBA, according to CTG. without I’m Morantthe Grizzlies don’t have anyone who can create looks and there are too many Memphis PGs Marcus Smart In this crime.
My prediction: Heat 111, Grizzlies 106
- Bet 1.3u on Miami Heat (-130).
Bet #3: Dallas Mavericks are on Toronto Raptors (+5)at 8:30 p.m. ET
You have to defend your three-point shot if you want to beat the Mavericks. They lead the NBA in 3PAr and are second in three-point shooting percentage. Well, Toronto ranks second in defensive three-point shooting and allows the sixth-fewest three-point attempts per game.
The Mavs have the seventh-highest rate of half-court plays per game, per CTG. While the Raptors rank third in defensive rating versus playing in the half court. Dallas runs a lot of ISO groups Luka Doncic. Toronto has three tall, athletic forwards to attack Luka: Pascal I’m sorry, And AnunobyAnd Scotty Barnes).
Furthermore, the Raptors come out of transition at the ninth-highest rate in the NBA, according to CTG, and rank second in fastbreak points added per 100 possessions. On the other hand, the Mavericks rank 25th in defensive transition efficiency.
Finally, it seems that Toronto is Sharp playing here. As I write this, the Raptors have gone from +5.5 to +5 underdogs and open at +6. This is despite more than 70% of the action taking place on the Mavericks as of Wednesday morning, according to Pregame.com.
My prediction: Raptors 113, Mavericks 110
- Bet 1.1u on Toronto Raptors +5 (-110).
listening to “OutKick Bets with Jeff Clark” Podcast here.