A hot week with the possibility of rain returning this weekend

Most of next week will see dry weather with fairly hot days and mild nights. With no chance of rain on Wednesday, we will likely have to wait until the end of this week to see a cold front bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Mild nights and hot days: After another dry and somewhat hot weekend, don’t expect to see much change between now and Friday. Tuesday will get off to a fairly mild start with lows in the low to mid 60s. We will once again see daytime temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s. It will remain fairly hot each day through Friday, as daytime highs will remain mainly in the upper 80s to low 90s. The humidity level will gradually rise during the week thanks to the continuous winds coming from the southeast. Overnight low temperatures will likely rise to the upper 60s and drop into the 70s by the end of the week.

A little rain in the middle of the week? We will likely see some strong to severe thunderstorms developing well to the northwest of the ArkLaTex on Tuesday. Futurecast shows that ahead of the storms we will see another mostly clear sky Monday night. We expect plenty of sunshine in our area on Tuesday. Storms developing Tuesday in Oklahoma could move into the northwest corner of the region Tuesday evening and will weaken as they arrive. The same disturbance will give us another chance for scattered thundershowers on Wednesday. We will then settle into a drier pattern through the end of the week.

Rain returns this weekend: There is good model agreement that the cold front will bring a good chance of more widespread rain this weekend. As of now, it looks like the risk of rain will start Saturday, peak Saturday night, and then end possibly late Monday. Severe weather cannot be completely ruled out, but as of now, the risk appears fairly low. We’ll know more as we get closer to the weekend. We will then settle back into a fairly dry weather pattern for the middle of next week with a slight drop in temperatures behind the front. Daytime highs will drop into the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 60s.

Rainfall for 10 days: A look at a mix of models shows that the probability of precipitation over the next 10 days will be highest in the northern part of the ArkLaTex where rainfall totals of 1.5 to 2 inches will be possible. This is the part of the area that will be closest to the path of the main upper low. Total rainfall over the southern portion of the region will likely range between ½ to 1″. This will not be enough to end drought conditions in the region. The normal rainfall during this period at the end of September is just over 1 inch. This will likely not significantly alleviate the drought, but will help prevent drought conditions from worsening. Stay tuned.