A potential storm system in the eastern U.S. could turn tropical, bringing heavy rain to the New Jersey area, forecasters say.

Forecasters are closely monitoring a potential storm system that could develop off the southeastern coast of the United States in the next few days — a storm that could bring heavy rain and gusty winds as far north as the New Jersey area this weekend.

Although the National Hurricane Center says there is only a 30% chance that an organized tropical depression, or tropical storm, will develop near the Atlantic coast, the agency says “a non-tropical low pressure area is expected to form near the southeastern coast of the United States.” “. states late this week.

“This system could gain some subtropical characteristics this weekend if it remains offshore while moving generally northward,” the hurricane center added.

AccuWeather meteorologists say they are closely monitoring any development of a low pressure system “in the area extending from northeastern Florida into North Carolina late this week and into the end of this week, as this area could produce a tropical system, which could unleash “Unleashing rain and gusty winds across a large area.” Part of the East Coast.”

AccuWeather forecasters say there is a possibility that a tropical depression or storm with tropical characteristics will form off the coast of the Carolinas late this week or next weekend, and there is a possibility of heavy rain in the New Jersey area.

AccuWeather says there is uncertainty about whether the low pressure area “will have enough time to fully develop into a tropical system before it is pushed inland over the Carolinas this weekend” — mainly because there may be Enough wind shear (winds that suddenly change direction (speed or direction over a short distance)) to interfere with a storm.

“There will be strong southerly breezes a few thousand miles above the surface in this area,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Doty said in a forecast report on AccuWeather.com. “Not only could wind shear prevent full tropical development, it could also push the system ashore quickly and essentially end development.”

The National Weather Service’s regional office in Mount Holly — which covers most of New Jersey, all of Delaware, eastern Pennsylvania and eastern Maryland — says it is also closely monitoring a potential storm system off the Southeast coast.

Meteorologists say that Cyclone Nigel does not pose any threat to land. But they say there is a 30% chance that a tropical depression or storm with tropical characteristics will develop off the coast of the Carolinas (yellow area) in the next seven days, and a 70% chance that a different tropical depression or storm will develop off the coast of Africa. (red area).

The weather service says the major computer guidance models are not in agreement on the timing of the system, but “there are some indications that the system could benefit from tropical moisture, meaning rainfall amounts could eventually be significant” in New Jersey and other parts of the United States. Mount Holly coverage area.

“Winds may also become strong from the east/northeast due to increasing pressure gradient as the highs retreat and the low begins to advance northward,” the weather service said.

The agency stressed that “expected confidence is still relatively low in this time range, but it will be a system to closely monitor in the coming days.”

Forecasters from Fox Weather say all signs point to heavy rain, at least in the southeastern region of the United States. Fox Weather said the southeast coast during most days of the week.

Current weather radar

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Len Melisurgo can be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com.

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