A quiet weekend ahead of the first weather alert day on Monday

A quiet weekend ahead of the first weather alert day on Monday

Good Friday evening everyone. Upper level low and high pressure combined with northerly winds bring the winter cold back to start the weekend today. Before the next storm system comes through late Sunday night and into Monday, all of the Ozarks will have to deal with a wind chill warning until noon Saturday.

Wind warning until Saturday afternoon(KY3)

With mostly clear skies tonight, lows should drop back into the low to mid single digits by 6 a.m. Saturday. With sustained winds of 10-15 mph from the north and occasional gusts near 20 mph, temperatures could feel like -15 degrees to -5 degrees by 8 a.m. Saturday.

Lows are above zero on Saturday morning
Lows are above zero on Saturday morning(KY3)
Wind chills reach -15 degrees by sunrise on Saturday
Wind chills reach -15 degrees by sunrise on Saturday(KY3)

With a light northeast breeze at 5-10 mph and mostly sunny skies for the rest of Saturday, that will allow temperatures to dip near 20 degrees and into the lower 20s Saturday afternoon. However, sometimes that breeze can make you feel like a teenager throughout the rest of the day.

Near 20 degrees or in the lower 20s for many Saturday afternoon
Near 20 degrees or in the lower 20s for many Saturday afternoon(KY3)

Even with the return of partly sunny skies on Sunday, we will see temperatures rise again. In fact, we will only return to the lower to middle teens Sunday morning and send highs for many near freezing Sunday afternoon.

Many teens start their Sunday morning outside
Many teens start their Sunday morning outside(KY3)
Highs near freezing Sunday afternoon
Highs near freezing Sunday afternoon(KY3)

After that, all eyes are on the first weather alert day as the next storm system comes into play very late Sunday night into Monday morning. While the air aloft will be warm, temperatures closer to the surface will be below freezing starting Monday. This will set the stage for showers, freezing rain and some slick roads to manage on Monday morning.

The first alert for possible freezing rain on Monday morning
The first alert for possible freezing rain on Monday morning(KY3)

By midnight, we will see our first rain chances working into the southwest Ozarks with many dropping into the upper 20s and some lower to the 30s. With temperatures remaining in this range by 6 a.m. Monday, the spread of moisture over the rest of the Ozarks will bring periods of mainly freezing rain during the morning commute.

Rain/freezing rain chances increase by midnight Monday
Rain/freezing rain chances increase by midnight Monday(KY3)
Freezing rain with temperatures below freezing at 6 a.m. Monday
Freezing rain with temperatures below freezing at 6 a.m. Monday(KY3)

By noon, many will see that things are improving. Many locations across the Ozarks will begin to see temperatures rise back above freezing to start the afternoon. Although it will still be cold, this will be enough for many to turn the chances of freezing rain into rain. However, some areas in the eastern Ozarks could wait until Monday evening to see temperatures rise enough to turn precipitation into rain again. By 6pm on Monday, we should be done with freezing rain or ice for the rest of the week.

Many return to above freezing by Monday afternoon
Many return to above freezing by Monday afternoon(KY3)
Most of it is above freezing with rain Monday evening
Most of it is above freezing with rain Monday evening(KY3)

While many influencing factors will ultimately determine how much ice can accumulate, many in the lighter shade below should expect glazing to be as thick as 0.20 inch of ice (essentially less than a quarter inch). Areas southeast of Springfield could see slightly higher amounts of one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch of ice. While this shouldn’t lead to power outage issues, it will make the roads messy Monday morning. By Monday evening, warmer temperatures should make navigating the roads easier.

Small accumulations of ice but enough to cause slippery roads Monday morning
Small accumulations of ice but enough to cause slippery roads Monday morning(KY3)

For the rest of next week, I see waves moving through giving us rain chances Tuesday into Thursday.

Additional waves of rain during the next week
Additional waves of rain during the next week(KY3)

As Danielle said, these rain chances could result in average rain amounts by next Friday between about a half inch to an inch and a half. We could definitely use this rain.

Rain could add over the next week to the Ozarks
Rain could add over the next week to the Ozarks(KY3)

Even with the possibility of rain and clouds expected during the rest of next week, temperatures do not look bad.

Highs near or above normal during the next week
Highs near or above normal during the next week(KY3)

Highs Tuesday through Friday of next week will remain near or above normal with numbers climbing into the middle to upper 40s. Additionally, morning lows will be in the middle to upper 30s over the next week.

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