A rainy Friday in Houston will likely slow down the morning commute

by rfergusonlaw.com · November 10, 2023

Many of us may have woken up to the gentle sound of rain on the window, but are bracing for slower commute times throughout the Houston metro area on Friday as a result of the wet weather. A cold front will pass through the region, bringing with it widespread rain.

Given the ongoing rain shortage in Southeast Texas, the few inches of cumulative rain expected in the forecast will help alleviate drought conditions affecting more than a dozen Southeast Texas counties. Before we break down the rainfall totals, let’s discuss the slower commute times that are likely due to this rain.

Rain tracking: Use our interactive rain and flood tracker to monitor current radar and road conditions

The latest forecast information indicates widespread rain and consolidated thunderstorms in the Houston area by 6 a.m. Friday. Rainfall intensity is expected to be light to moderate, although heavy rain is expected during isolated thunderstorms.

It is difficult to know exactly where the strongest storms will develop, but the greatest instability will be confined to the area between Houston and the Texas Gulf Coast. The high-resolution Rapid Update Model, which updates hourly and represents thunderstorm activity, indicates that several showers should head toward north and west of Houston by late Friday morning. Rain is expected to continue along and south of Interstate 10 through the afternoon.

Precipitation tapers off across Southeast Texas in time for the Friday evening commute, but we’re not done with the rain chances yet.

A wet and cold weekend ahead

The cold front moving through Southeast Texas early Friday will come ashore by Saturday. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure is expected to develop along the lower Texas Gulf Coast. This drop will continue along the stalled frontal boundary through Saturday, keeping rain chances in Houston.

Will Saturday be a complete wash? Not likely, but the chances of rain depend on where you live. If you’re in College Station or Huntsville, showers will be fewer in number than in places like The Woodlands, Houston, or Galveston. Even in Houston, where the chances of rain on Saturday are between 60% and 80%, you will occasionally have some dry times.

An area of low pressure is expected to move toward the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night into Sunday, reducing rain chances slightly through the second half of the weekend.

This map shows the national model mix forecast for Saturday’s high temperatures in Southeast Texas. Most locations will see highs colder than 70 degrees on Saturday and Sunday.

Weatherbell

If you’re planning to get outdoors on Sunday, perhaps to enjoy the cooler weather, we at least have a good chance of a long shower. Similar to Saturday, this rain chance will be higher south of Houston toward the coast. Rain chances from League City to Pearland to Galveston will be in the 50% range on Sunday. If we had to pick a day this weekend when rain is less likely, it’s Sunday.

Weather injury: Houston had one last day in the 80s on Thursday before the cold front, though it likely won’t be the last of the year

This weekend’s forecast for clouds and rain also includes cooler weather. Bush Intercontinental Airport, Houston’s official climate monitoring location, recorded a high of 85 degrees on Wednesday and 87 degrees on Tuesday. This weekend, highs in the area will likely only be in the mid to upper 60s, just below the average climate for Houston in early November.

Beneficial precipitation

We desperately need rain in Southeast Texas. Since January 1, 2023 cumulative rainfall at Bush Intercontinental Airport is about 8.4 inches below normal for the year so far. The rainfall deficit more than doubles, or 17.8 inches, at Hobby Airport.

Fortunately, we’re not expecting 18 inches of rain this weekend. Our game of catch-up is gradually getting more intense with the rain this weekend. Most of Southeast Texas will see at least an inch of rain before the weekend close, with up to 3 inches of rain possible in and around Houston. Coastal counties could pick up the most rain this weekend, with up to 4 inches of rain possible.