A winter storm watch for some on Tuesday and a storm proposal for the rest of us

A winter storm watch for some on Tuesday and a storm proposal for the rest of us

February 10, 2024

This update, provided Saturday evening, is for the next weather event and winter’s attempt to reappear. There has been chatter about this event, and I even broke my protocol earlier this week to mention it 8 days before the scheduled date just to keep hope alive for snow lovers.

If you’re new to my site, I’m a self-conscious snow lover. With that in mind, I keep my bias in check and don’t get too carried away with the possibility of snow for two reasons: First, I don’t see the supply of arctic air needed. The other is inconsistency with the two main models. We started to see some agreement yesterday, but as of today, this is the comparison between the GFS models and the European models.

“Suggestions” model Tuesday morning

The US GFS model is constantly trying to bring snow near Baltimore. The European ECMWF is constantly trying to pull the storm to the north and clear the snow there as well.

For Baltimore, that snow will be on the northern edge or further north. This will be moderate and light snow in central Pennsylvania and possibly metro New York. Before I look closer, I want to help answer the big question I keep getting asked:

Why are the models so different?

To answer this, we can only look at the jet stream. This is the 500 mb level, about 18,000 feet above the surface. I’ve been focusing on the Blocking High in eastern Canada, or the lack thereof…but the short wave of the jet stream with this storm seems to be the key.

the GFS model It actually has a weaker event aloft, allowing low surface pressure and snow to track Father south into parts of Maryland.

February 10 Weather Storm Jet Stream GFS

the ECMW F modeI have a noticeably stronger short wave, which is pulling the surface low pressure to the north. This subtle feature could result in a shift upwards of 100 miles and a major consequence for a large human population on Earth.

February 10, weather storm, jet stream ECMWF

Back to the surface storm

GFS model animation

1pm to 7pm Tuesday

Weather Forecast for February 10 Snow Storm Tuesday GFS

Shot 7 a.m. Tuesday

Low pressure near Cape May, New Jersey.

“IF” we see snow in Maryland, it could be a slushy mix across the northern suburbs of Baltimore.

This is a classic setup where higher elevations inland have a better chance of snowfall and possibly slushy adhesion. This will approximate the I-95 corridor between Philadelphia and New York.

Weather forecast for February 10 with a Tuesday morning snow storm from GFS

Temperatures

This is crucial! I don’t see a freeze in our area. It can snow with temperatures in the mid-30s, and if moderate snow falls at night, it can outperform warmer ground for a slushy stick.

Since the freeze line seems isolated as far west as Maryland and central Pennsylvania, I hesitate to even mention the possibility.

Weather forecast for February 10. Temperatures Tuesday morning

NB:

If you see a potential snowfall map, run away! In fact, just look carefully. The Earth has warmed in the 1950s and 1960s, as well as a lack of Arctic air. Much of what may fall will melt or become exposed.

The warmest solution

ECMWF model animation

1pm to 7pm Tuesday

Weather forecast for a snow storm on February 10, Tuesday ECMWF

Shot 7 a.m. Tuesday

The low pressure is located near Atlantic City, New Jersey. This is not far north, but upper air influence dominates the location of the cold air support.

This pushes the snow line onto I-81 in southern PA. This is north of York and closer to Harrisburg. The central PA is still in a state of accumulation, however Philadelphia remains wet and the New York metro is a rain to sloppy mix on its north side.

Weather forecast for February 10 with a snow storm Tuesday morning ECMWF

Winter storm watch

The National Weather Service issued the latest alerts to run late Monday night through Tuesday morning for this event.

The southern edge of the area of ​​concern is near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. North Philadelphia and New York remain.

This is consistent with European temperature and surface plots.

He doesn’t promise the final snow line…just better odds now that there will be an impact on travel. Moving closer, this area will be modified to a Winter Weather Warning or Advisory depending on the expected snow totals…. Some areas not found in Watch can be added now.

February 10 Winter Storm Watch Tuesday

Stay tuned….

The slight shift in the storm’s track, intensity, timing, and how cold temperatures fall will all play a role in what may remain on the ground.

Recent snow reports

January 19 Recap

Click here for maps and full report

January 19 Snow spotters in NWS Maryland and Virginia

January 16 snow report

Click here or the map to see: Snow report ending January 16

Snow report for January 16 in Maryland, Virginia

NOAA’s forecast is cooler

Tuesday night, I wrote this report explaining the change in pattern. Click on this map or here for more…

The weather forecast for February 6 is cold

Sign up for email alerts

Weather posts straight to your inbox

Register and be the first to know!

Explore more

History of Maryland’s snow climate and other winter pages

School STEM Assemblies/Field Trips are back

Click to see more and ‘book’ a visit to your school

Latest winter forecast reports:

My winter forecast: more snow

Snow forecast for winter 2024

He doesn’t even do thatno Winter updates

Late November: Warm waters shifting westward in the Pacific Ocean could mean more snow in the eastern United States

El Nino Sea Surface Temperatures November 22

Computer models support the East Coast storm track

El Nino CFSv2 winter precipitation model

El Niño warning

NOAA’s latest report is confident that a very strong event will occur. Maybe historical! This refers to temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, with implications for the track of the winter storm in the United States.

El Niño November 2023

Winter Weather Folklore: The 20 Best and More Nature’s References to Snow.

NOAA Winter 2024 Forecast

The 2024 winter forecast from farmers’ calendars returns cold and snow

Please share your thoughts and best weather photos/videos, or just stay in touch via social media

Paraphrasing my post about dyslexia

I know there are some spelling, grammar mistakes, and other glitches sometimes. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even computer errors that I may have overlooked. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here, you might have missed it: I have dyslexia and discovered it during my sophomore year at Cornell. This did not stop me from obtaining my degree in meteorology and being the first to obtain an AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area. One of my teachers told me that I had come this far without knowing it and to not let it be a crutch to move forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes in my proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does it unfairly which makes matters worse. I can also make forecasting errors. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are accurate. “Verbal” things can get sticky. There was no editor who could check my work When I need it And have it ready to send on a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team who helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to correct typos when available. It could be after reading this. I accept this and perhaps it will prove that what you read is truly from me…it’s part of my magic. #FITF

You may also like...

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *