Alert day is Monday for rain and snow chances

Alert day is Monday for rain and snow chances

Good Sunday evening everyone. After highs in the mid 40s today, we will head colder on Monday as clouds will give way to more rain and snow across much of the region. This is all due to our storm system at the surface near Memphis and the cold air aloft that is coming in as the upper level drops off the Southern Plains. All of this results in winter weather warnings in blue and winter storm warnings in pink starting at night and ending by 6 p.m. Monday.

Winter warnings and advisories are in effect for our snow on Monday(KY3)

While there could be some drizzle in spots this evening, I expect the radar to become more active between midnight and 4 a.m. Monday as more moisture and cooler air above begins to take effect. While there may be rain for many at the start of this, the cold air aloft should make relatively quick work of turning this into a rain/snow mix or pockets of moderate to heavy snow during the pre-dawn hours.

Rain begins to fall from the southwest at midnight
Rain begins to fall from the southwest at midnight(KY3)
More snow will mix in by 4 a.m. Monday
More snow will mix in by 4 a.m. Monday(KY3)

While some in the Southeast Ozarks during the morning drive will be dealing with rain and some pockets of a rain/snow mix, many of us will be dealing with periods of snow that may be moderate to heavy at times. This will continue through the rest of the morning to begin the afternoon.

More snow for many along and south of I-44 by 8 a.m. Monday
More snow for many along and south of I-44 by 8 a.m. Monday(KY3)
Rain and snow are on the radar starting Monday afternoon
Rain and snow are on the radar starting Monday afternoon(KY3)

As the afternoon progresses, the storm system will move far enough to the east-northeast to reduce the chances of rain and snow. While we still have some rain and snow on the radar in the southeast Ozarks by 4 a.m., we should wrap up the last rain and snow chances between 6 and 7 p.m. Monday.

Moving into the Southeast Ozarks by 4pm Monday
Moving into the Southeast Ozarks by 4pm Monday(KY3)
Any rain or snow will be over after 6 or 7 pm on Monday
Any rain or snow will be over after 6 or 7 pm on Monday(KY3)

As Nicolette said this morning and as we’ve been saying since Friday, the path of the system and how quickly cold air gets in… are all critical to determining the snow amounts to expect. Not only are we dealing with the back of the moisture with this broad storm system overall, the expected band of heavier snow doesn’t cover a lot of real estate. That’s why we’ve emphasized in our on-air and online discussions that any shift in this system, whether big or small, could dramatically change what we expect. Due to the southerly shift in the track, I think the heaviest snow will be 3 to 5 inches in dark blue. Areas on a winter storm warning will have a better chance of seeing the potential for 4, 5 and even 6 inches of snow. Once you get out of this expected heavy range, the amounts go down a bit. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected in the blue with areas far north and southeast of the Ozarks only getting an inch of dust.

Snow accumulation forecast for Monday (updated Sunday afternoon)
Snow accumulation forecast for Monday (updated Sunday afternoon)(KY3)

As for temperatures, we will see morning lows near freezing starting Monday. Although we will have highs in the mid to upper 30s as the snow and rain begin to fall Monday afternoon, it will still be too cold up there to allow snow to fall.

Near freeze Monday morning
Near freeze Monday morning(KY3)
Many of them remained in the 30s as of Monday afternoon
Many of them remained in the 30s as of Monday afternoon(KY3)

By Monday night, we will see mostly clear skies back in place and the sun will come out on Tuesday. That will take us from morning lows in the upper 20s to highs at least near 50 degrees Tuesday afternoon. Numbers may vary with any of the heaviest snow accumulations, but the trend is for it to get warmer on Tuesday.

The heat returns quickly Tuesday
The heat returns quickly Tuesday(KY3)

We will see highs near 60 degrees on Wednesday as the sun continues to shine. However, we will start to dip into the lower to middle 50s on Thursday and get back into the 40s to start next weekend.

Wednesday is milder before we head lower again into the weekend
Wednesday is milder before we head lower again into the weekend(KY3)

Once Monday’s weather clears, we’ll stay calm with mostly sunny skies Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday, a fast front and a fast wave will move over the upper level. While that could give us some scattered showers early Thursday morning, I think we’ll have plenty of dry time for Thursday. After that, we will have another system with mainly rain chances on Friday with a chance of mixing in with a little snow on Friday evening.

A few showers are possible early Thursday
A few showers are possible early Thursday(KY3)
Another possible system by Friday
Another possible system by Friday(KY3)

Outside of Friday’s system, I see dry weather and partly sunny skies lined up for the rest of next weekend.

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