Another couple of days of heat and then possibly heavy rain

We will see two more days of potential triple-digit heat before the change in weather pattern finally stabilizes. Expect several chances of precipitation in the coming week as models continue to point to the possibility of some drought mitigation.

Spotty t’shower a sign of things to come? A weak front boundary will bring a chance of some scattered thunderstorms. Today, the main concentration of rain was in the northern half of the region. That focus will shift to the south on Thursday. The Futurecast shows that any rain that falls across the northern half of the region today will end quickly as it moves south on Wednesday evening. We’ll see partly cloudy skies tonight. Look for a mixture of sunshine and clouds on Thursday with some intermittent thunderstorms mainly over eastern Texas and northwest Louisiana. This rain will end quickly on Thursday evening and we will see partly cloudy skies Thursday night. The sky will be partly cloudy most of Fridays. During the afternoon, scattered rain and thunderstorms will begin to develop. It is likely that this rain will increase in coverage on Friday evening and Friday night. It ends from north to south on Saturday morning. Then we will take a break from the rain for a few days.

Futurecast current episode

Two more days! Temperatures remain very high in most areas from now until Friday. Wednesday night lows are likely to be in the mid to high 70s. We will see intraday highs on Thursday in the upper 90s down to near 100 degrees. Expect similar temperatures Thursday night. Friday will be slightly cooler in the northern half of the region but is likely to remain close to 100 degrees over eastern Texas and northwestern Louisiana. This will probably be our last couple of days this year with triple digit heat!

Tomorrow’s forecast

Possible cold and rain next week: The upper ridge that has produced the hot and dry conditions we’ve seen since mid-July will finally come crashing down next week. This will allow for cooler temperatures and more rain! Heavy rains are likely to fall during the next ten days during the middle of next week. We now have a good model agreement that most of the region should receive at least an inch of rain. The potential 10-day rainfall forecast from a combination of models shows much of the area could see at least two inches with three inches possible in the northwest corner of the area. This probably won’t be enough to end the dryness, but it will definitely help.

More rain = cooler temperatures: We are likely to see cooler than normal temperatures next week, as daytime highs are likely to hold in the mid to high 80s across much of the region. The overnight lows will also cool into the mid-60s to the highs. The risk of rain is likely to end by the end of next week. As a result, temperatures will begin to rise with highs returning to the low 90s and lows eventually into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

As I wrote in my article last week, on average, the first morning that temperatures are in the low 50s in Shreveport is September 17th. It looks like it will happen a little later this year. The good news is that we’re finally seeing some hints that something might be right around the corner.

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