August 23 – Weather forecast update for Shreveport, Texarkana

The extreme heat continues with little hope of a little rain

High temperatures will continue to drop in the coming days. A few small, very isolated showers will be possible. The front will move in early next week and will provide a better chance of rain and cooler temperatures. Another warming trend will follow.

Dangerous hot weather continues: So far this week we have seen record high temperatures on Monday and Tuesday. Today’s record of 106 is in jeopardy. We will likely continue to see record heat through the end of the week. Thursday may be the hottest day of the week. Thursday morning temperatures will start back in the 70s and low 80s. Thursday’s highs are likely to be in the 105 to 110 range over most of the region. Thursday’s record high temperature was 103 degrees which was recorded in 1963. This record is likely to be broken. Temperatures will cool off just a little until the front moves through Monday. Lows will likely remain in the 70s and low 80s. Daytime highs will likely drop into the lower triple digits by Monday. The extreme heat warning will remain in place until at least Thursday, if not the weekend.

At least some hope for rain: While most models indicate that the dry weather will continue, high-resolution models including Futurecast show that some very small and isolated rain will be possible starting Thursday afternoon. Don’t get your hopes up too much. Rain chances will likely be 10% or less in most locations. These low rain chances will continue through the weekend. Although there is a very small chance of rain, we will still see plenty of sunshine. Futurecast shows mostly clear skies Wednesday night and a mix of sunshine, clouds and some intermittent rain on Thursday. We will remain partly cloudy Thursday night. The mix of sun, cloud and intermittent showers will return on Friday.

Yay! A break from the heat…finally: The large area of ​​upper-level high pressure that has caused extreme heat this past month will form over the Rocky Mountains by the end of the weekend and early next week. Upper-level northwest winds on the eastern side of its circulation will push a welcome front across the region early next week. The best rain chances will likely come in the next 10 days as this front moves through late Monday or Monday night. Temperatures behind the front will temporarily drop to more normal levels with highs in the mid 90s and lows in the low 70s. Unfortunately, next week will end with the upper edge moving back to the east. This means we could see more triple-digit heat by the end of next week.

Probability of rainfall for 10 days: So far this August, Shreveport has received only a trace of precipitation, making it its driest August on record. We have witnessed an increase in rainfall forecasts with the passage of the coming front from most global models. Most now show that quantities from ½ to 1 inch will be possible. What bothers me is that the long range model mix still shows much lighter amounts with totals of 1/10 of an inch or less. I like to look at it this way. I expect to see less than 1/4 inch of rain and hope to be one of the lucky ones who gets the required inch. An optimist might also note that we are now seeing patterns trending in the right direction. Let’s hope this trend continues. Stay tuned.