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Big Island news, weather, entertainment and more

Hello

today: Cloudy with rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Highs are 75 to 81 near shore to about 65 at 4,000 feet. Light wind. Chance of rain is 90 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Low temperatures range from 64 to 69 near shore to about 55 at 4,000 feet. Light wind. Chance of rain is 80 percent.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with frequent rain and scattered thunderstorms. Highs are 75 to 81 near shore to about 65 at 4,000 feet. Winds are southeasterly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour. Chance of rain is 70 percent.

KONA

today: Cloudy with rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Highs 81 to 86 near shore to about 66 near 5,000 feet. Light wind. Chance of rain is 90 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Lows are around 71 near shore to 47 to 54 near 5,000 feet. Light wind. The chance of rain is 80 percent.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with frequent rain and scattered thunderstorms. Highs 81 to 87 near shore to about 65 near 5,000 feet. Light wind. The chance of rain is 70 percent.

water

today: Cloudy with rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Highs are 72 to 79 near shore and 65 to 75 near 3,000 feet. Light wind. Chance of rain is 90 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Lows range from 62 to 69 near shore and from 56 to 61 near 3,000 feet. Light winds will become southeasterly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour after midnight. Chance of rain is 80 percent.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with frequent rain and scattered thunderstorms. Highs are 71 to 78 near shore and 65 to 76 near 3,000 feet. Winds are easterly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour. Chance of rain is 70 percent.

Koala

today: Cloudy with rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Highs are 72 to 79 near shore and 65 to 75 near 3,000 feet. Light wind. Chance of rain is 90 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Lows range from 62 to 69 near shore and from 56 to 61 near 3,000 feet. Light winds will become southeasterly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour after midnight. The chance of rain is 80 percent.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with frequent rain and scattered thunderstorms. Highs are 71 to 78 near shore and 65 to 76 near 3,000 feet. Winds are easterly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour. Chance of rain is 70 percent.

South of the Big Island

today: Cloudy with rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Highs are about 82 near shore to about 64 near 5,000 feet. Light winds will become southeast at about 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 90 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Lows are around 71 near shore to around 51 near 5,000 feet. Winds are easterly 10 to 15 knots. Chance of rain is 80 percent.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with frequent rain and scattered thunderstorms. Highs are about 83 near shore to about 64 near 5,000 feet. Winds are easterly 10 to 15 knots. The chance of rain is 70 percent.

Bona

today: Cloudy with rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Highs are 75 to 81 near shore to about 65 at 4,000 feet. Light wind. Chance of rain is 90 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Low temperatures range from 64 to 69 near shore to about 55 at 4,000 feet. Light wind. The chance of rain is 80 percent.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with frequent rain and scattered thunderstorms. Highs are 75 to 81 near shore to about 65 at 4,000 feet. Winds are southeasterly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour. The chance of rain is 70 percent.

Wekoloa

today: Cloudy with rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Highs 80 to 85 near shore to 64 to 70 above 4,000 feet. Light wind. Chance of rain is 90 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy with rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Lows are around 71 near shore to 50 to 56 above 4,000 feet. Light wind. The chance of rain is 80 percent.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with frequent rain and scattered thunderstorms. Highs 81 to 86 near shore to 64 to 70 above 4,000 feet. Light wind. Chance of rain is 70 percent.

summary

An unstable upper low slowly drifting eastward across the islands will continue to produce periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms with elevated statewide flood threats today. Weather conditions around this upper low will support some thunderstorm intensity becoming strong to severe. Heavy rain, flooding, frequent lightning and gusty winds will be the main threats. By Monday, the upper low weakens and moves northeast away from the island chain, reducing thunderstorm activity and heavy rain. However, this wet weather pattern is likely to continue throughout the week as another stronger low pressure system approaches from the north, potentially producing southerly Kona winds over the western islands by Wednesday.

discussion

Satellite water vapor channel images this morning continue to show a cold, unstable upper low over Maui County slowly drifting eastward. The direction of this low will center around the islands as a secondary pulse of energy moves into Kauai and Oahu today increasing the risk of heavy rain and thunderstorms over the western islands. This large and unstable upper low will bring heavy rain and thunderstorms across the state through Sunday. Some of these thunderstorms will grow into the strong to severe intensity range. The main threats to this system will be heavy rain, flooding, frequent lightning, and strong gusty winds near thunderstorms. A flood watch has been extended for all islands until this evening. This watch may decrease in coverage of the Western Isles by tonight.
In the short term, the global guiding model shows the upper low circling the islands today before slowly weakening and drifting northeastward away from the state. Sufficient instability and vertical wind shear will produce periods of isolated, scattered thunderstorms across the state. Some of these storms will become strong to very intense, with strong winds, hailstones, and the possibility of water springs forming. Flash flooding, strong gusty winds and frequent lightning will develop quickly in this weather pattern and for these reasons outdoor activities should be postponed this weekend if possible.
Monday through Tuesday… Threats of heavy rain and thunderstorms fade by Monday as the low weakens and slowly drifts northeast away from the state. However, a weak upper level trough will keep wet weather in the forecast with southeasterly winds over the islands until Tuesday.
From Wednesday to Friday… Another unusually strong low will approach the islands from the north on Wednesday. The surface low forming under the upper low will be stronger than the previous system and may produce southerly Kuna winds over the western half of the state. The latest forecast guidance shows that the center of the low will be located about 400 to 600 miles west-northwest of Kauai. An influx of unstable southerly Kona winds could bring another round of heavy rain and thunderstorms to Niihau, Kauai and western Oahu Wednesday into Friday. In the latest model solutions, Kauai County will be under the greatest threat of flooding, thunderstorms and strong gusty winds during this time period. This part of the long-range weather forecast is likely to change over time. Many of these severe weather impacts depend greatly on the location of this low pressure system relative to each island. Small changes in the location of the low center will lead to large changes in the island's forecast. Watch for changes in the local long-term weather forecast, as the time period becomes shorter and weather impacts evolve on an individual island basis.

airline

A strong upper level disturbance will continue to move across the state today. Enhanced shower activity and scattered thunderstorms will produce periods of localized MVFR and IFR. Light winds should allow a sea breeze to develop this afternoon, with scattered showers possible over areas inland and protected from the wind.
AIRMET Sierra to block Cadence Mountain remains in effect over the Big Island this morning. It may become necessary to include smaller islands later in the day as shower activity increases.
AIRMET Tango for moderate to isolated moderate to upper level severe disturbances remains in effect as upper level disturbance moves across the state.
AMD continues to not request PMDY due to hardware issues, with no timeline for a restoration.

Navy

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the day as an unusually strong upper-level disturbance moves through the area. These thunderstorms have the potential to produce strong wind gusts, hail, and frequent lightning. Maritime interests should continue to monitor special marine warnings that may be issued. Light and variable winds will prevail over local waters, except in and near thunderstorms. Light to moderate easterly trade winds will begin to return to the region on Sunday.
A long-lasting southerly swell will affect the islands this weekend. Although the swell will continue over the next few days, waves should continue to trend downward as the period decreases. Another series of long-lasting overlapping south swells will give another big boost to surfing on the South Shore from Wednesday into late next week.
A small, short-lived strengthening swell to the north-northwest will increase north and west shore surf through this morning, then subside later today into Sunday. A new, small, long-standing northwesterly swell will form Sunday night, giving a boost to surfing on the North Shore early next week. Waves along east-facing beaches will be well below normal levels until the middle of next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advice

Flood Watch through this evening for all Hawaiian Islands.
Wind Advisory until 6pm GMT this evening for Big Island Peaks.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6pm GMT this evening for the Big Island peaks.

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Data provided by NOAA.gov

(Tags for translation)5-day weather forecast

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