Boston, MA weather does not arrive Easter Tuesday. Morning, 6-12 inches of snow expected in Massachusetts – NBC Boston

Boston, MA weather does not arrive Easter Tuesday.  Morning, 6-12 inches of snow expected in Massachusetts – NBC Boston

There are times when expectations are exhilarating, and times when they defy logic.

This is one of the last. The guidance was very confident as most of the Commonwealth saw 6 to 12 inches of snowfall.

As the course turned south, confidence disappeared. Why this shift? Why retreat? It’s easy to say, “The weather is changeable, and changes happen.” But the crux of the matter is the coupled jet streams that influence the storm’s path.

First, we saw a very strong storm manipulating the steering currents as it went. As time passed, the storm appeared weaker (axial change). Now at the mercy of steering currents, a current from the north eventually gained the upper hand and turned the storm south.

Pattern development is the weakest link in weather forecasting. The proverb “butterfly flapping its wings” coined by MIT professor Ed Lorenz as chaos was in strong play here. But we still have some backlog. There will still be some impact for travel and cleaning.

Rain will prevent the onset of the storm in some areas, while wet snow will have difficulty accumulating in others.

As the “meat” of the storm progresses through the late morning and early afternoon, we will shift to snow and see the majority of the accumulation. Winds will pick up along the coast, gusting to 40+ at the water’s edge.

Coastal flooding is expected at high tide at 2pm. We will be between minor and moderate in many locations, and will not be able to cope with the major flooding that occurred last month.

The storm wrap comes late Tuesday afternoon and this evening (at the Cape).

The winds will change and we expect temperatures to drop below freezing. Some slick spots are possible Wednesday morning.

The cold remains a factor into the weekend. We have another batch of light snow expected late Thursday and early Friday.

More weather news

Maps: How Easter will transition to Tuesday Mass, hour by hour

Timing and impacts of Easter this week: How much snow will Massachusetts get?

Boston is among dozens of schools closing for snow day Tuesday

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