California gets a break from storms. This is when the rain could return

California gets a break from storms.  This is when the rain could return

Weather models predict that the jet stream will intensify and extend toward California at the end of next week, indicating the return of stormy weather. Meanwhile, the weather is expected to be generally calm over the next five to seven days.

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But the Golden State is expected to take a break from the wet weather for at least the next five days. Californians should use the weekend to recover and clean up, because another period of wet weather looks increasingly likely as the Presidents Day weekend approaches.

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The jet stream, a band of fast-moving air in the atmosphere, continues to elongate across the Pacific Ocean this El Niño winter, funneling storms toward California. This weekend, the jet stream is expected to split into two parts, one over Canada and the other over Mexico. The split jet stream is not suitable for stormy weather on the West Coast.

But next week, the jet stream is expected to strengthen again over California, marking a return to the stormy pattern. Some light to moderate rain is possible early Thursday over the Bay Area, but confidence is higher in river-fed storms by the end of next week.

The Climate Prediction Center expects a 60% to 70% chance of above-normal rainfall in California next weekend.

The Climate Prediction Center expects a 60% to 70% chance of above-normal rainfall in California next weekend.

Baron/Lynx

The Climate Prediction Center expects the risk of heavy rainfall to rise in California from February 17-19. The center also expects an increased risk of heavy snowfall in the Sierra Nevada during the same period. Strong winds are also likely next weekend, but there is less confidence in the rain forecast.

The Climate Prediction Center expects a high risk of heavy snowfall in the Sierra Nevada from February 17-19.

The Climate Prediction Center expects a high risk of heavy snowfall in the Sierra Nevada from February 17-19.

Baron/Lynx

It’s too early to get details on the timing and amounts of rain, and the onset of stormy weather is likely a week away. However, similar signs of looming wet weather appeared in mid-January before the early February onslaught.

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Meanwhile, the Bay Area is expected to be mostly sunny and dry this weekend. Highs will rise slowly, from the mid 50s on Friday to near 60 on Saturday and Sunday. Low temperatures will remain cool, in the 30s inland and low 40s near the water. A frost warning is in effect until 9 a.m. Saturday for the North Bay and East Bay Valleys, Hills and Mountains, Santa Cruz Mountains and Santa Clara Valley.

A coastal flood warning remains in effect along the Gulf Coast until 10 a.m. Saturday due to morning tides rising a half-foot higher than forecast.

Weekend breakdown

San Francisco: The forecast for the weekend is rain-free in the city, and temperatures will gradually rise. The morning will be cool, in the lower to mid 40s, but will feel relatively warm compared to what it has been recently, increasing from the mid 50s on Friday to near 60 by Sunday.

Patchy fog is possible during Friday, Saturday and Sunday morning, with the best chance near the Embarcadero, Mission Bay and Potrero Hill neighborhoods. Any morning fog will quickly burn off turning partly to mostly sunny skies.

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North Bay: Residents should use the dry and mostly sunny weekend to clean up damage from recent storms. Sunday is expected to be the warmest day of the weekend, in the lower 60s in San Rafael, Santa Rosa, Napa, Fairfield and Vacaville. Friday and Saturday will be a little cooler, in the mid to upper 50s.

Overnight lows will remain cool, in the 30s inland and near 40 along the Gulf Coast. Patchy morning fog is likely in the valleys each morning, especially in eastern Solano County on Friday. Saturday morning will likely be the least cloudy, with north winds gusting up to 30 mph in Vacaville and Fairfield.

East Bay: The weather is expected to be dry and sunny this weekend around the East Bay, but morning temperatures will be cold. Lows in the interior valleys, including Walnut Creek and Livermore, will be in the mid to upper 30s, especially Friday and Saturday nights.

Highs will be fairly uniform across the East Bay, in the mid 50s on Friday and near 60 on Saturday and Sunday. Aside from the passage of high clouds, the only obstacle to the sun’s rays will be patchy fog. Eastern Contra Costa and Alameda counties will likely be foggy Friday morning.

Pacific Coast and Peninsula: Mornings will still be cool in San Mateo County this weekend, but mostly sunny skies will allow highs to return to normal, in the mid to upper 50s.

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Cool mornings will continue Friday and Saturday, with mid to upper 50s in San Carlos, Redwood City and Menlo Park. Sunday morning should be a little warmer, near 40. Lows in Daly City and Half Moon Bay will be relatively warmer, in the lower 40s. Skies will be mostly clear this weekend, except for patchy morning fog near the Gulf Shore.

South Bay and Santa Cruz: Clear skies and calm winds will lead to cool nights and mornings in Santa Clara and Santa Cruz counties. Away from the water, low temperatures will drop into the mid-30s Friday and Saturday night, while coastal areas will remain a bit warmer. Sunday night should be warmer, closer to 40 degrees.

Daytime temperatures are expected to rise gradually. Friday will be in the mid 50s in Santa Cruz and upper 50s in San Jose, but Saturday and Sunday are expected to be closer to normal, in the upper 50s on the coast and lower 60s in the Santa Clara Valley. Aside from patchy fog Friday morning, skies should be mostly sunny this weekend.

(tags for translation) El Niño

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