Don’t stop accepting fall jobs, as the weather may cooperate for a fair while

I know we are approaching fall, but the emerging weather pattern could hinder operating in severe weather for at least several weeks to more than a month.

All the weather data shows the deep cold of fall retreating and returning to Canada. This doesn’t mean we’ll be back for much of the summer. This means we’ll likely have at least another month of great weather for outdoor projects.

Computer modeling of weather is fascinating. In the short term over the next few days, the models will be very accurate. But nowadays we also have models that extend from several weeks to more than a month. One such output that I like is the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (European Model) model and its 45-day forecast. Yes, let’s take a look at the rest of September and all of October.

We don’t get a specific number for a specific day using this type of model. We get a general idea of ​​whether the weather pattern will be cold, normal, warm and humid or dry.

The 45-day EUR production indicates that Michigan will be warmer than normal over the next 45 days, for the most part. Remember- this doesn’t mean every day is sunny and 75 degrees. However, more days will lean toward summer versus the deep fall chill.

Here are the surface temperature anomaly forecasts. This shows that Michigan and almost all of the United States are quickly entering a pattern several degrees warmer than normal and staying there through the end of October.

Temperature anomaly forecasts from the European model from September 19 to October 28, 2023

The above result is in degrees Celsius. You see temperatures in Michigan being two to four degrees Celsius higher than normal during the month of October. I convert this to four to eight degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal. It’s not hot, but it’s not cold either.

This pattern also appears to slow down rain systems to rain once a week. The animation below shows the total precipitation anomalies through the end of October. This indicates that we will be generally drier at any given time than usual.

Total precipitation anomalies from 19 September to 28 October

One important note is that this does not mean complete dehydration. This just means that the rain will not reach a heavier level than usual. I would also say that the accuracy of this is only believable until mid-October. Hence the southwesterly flow expected to develop could contain more numerous rain systems.

Don’t hang up your tool belt, paint brush, or landscaping equipment yet. There may be a significant stretch of weather to complete outdoor jobs and projects.

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