Excessive heat warning from 1pm to 9pm Saturday; Cooler Sunday

Excessive heat warning from 1pm to 9pm Saturday;  Cooler Sunday

The average high temperature in the Twin City is 80 degrees this time of year. Highs in the metro area are expected to reach the 90s Saturday afternoon.

Much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have highs Saturday in the 90s, with around 80s in north-central and northeastern Minnesota. Dew points are expected to reach the 70s Saturday afternoon in parts of central and southern Minnesota and in parts of west-central Wisconsin.

The combination of humid air and hot temperatures will generate heat index values ​​over 100 degrees in many locations Saturday afternoon/early Saturday evening.

Excessive heat warnings and heat warnings in many areas

The National Weather Service has issued an excessive heat warning from 1 pm to 9 pm Saturday from south-central Minnesota through the Twin Cities metro area and into several surrounding counties:

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Excessive Heat Advisories and Heat Advisories Saturday afternoon/evening

National Weather Service

A heat warning (orange) covers several additional counties from 1pm to 9pm on Saturday.

Below are the details of the overheat warning:

BREAKING – WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 611 AM CDT Saturday, August 19, 2023 MNZ051>053-059>063-065>070-073>077-082>084-091-092-WIZ023-191900- /O. CON.KMPX.EH.W.0002.230819T1800Z-230820T0200Z/Sherburne-Isanti-Chesago-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur- Rice-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Martin-Faribault-St. Croix – including the cities of Elk River, Cambridge, Center City, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St. Paul, Stillwater, Olivia, Hutchinson, Gaylord, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria , Shakopee, Hastings, Redwood Falls, New Ulm, St Peter, Le Sueur, Faribault, St James, Mankato, Waseca, Fairmont, Blue Earth, and Hudson 611 AM CDT Saturday, August 19, 2023… An Excess Heat Warning remains in effect from 1pm to 9pm CST this evening… *WHAT…Dangerously hot conditions with Heat Index values ​​up to 108 expected. * Where…Redwood Falls to Vermont, northeast via the Twin Cities metro to Minnesota's Isanti and Chisago counties and St. Louis County. Croix in Wisconsin. *When…from 1pm this afternoon to 9pm CST this evening. * Effects… Extreme heat and humidity will greatly increase the likelihood of heat-related illness, especially for those who work or participate in outdoor activities. Precautionary/precautionary measures… Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check on relatives and neighbors. Small children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible, reschedule strenuous activities for the early morning or evening. Learn about the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight, loose clothing when possible. To reduce risks while working outdoors, OSHA recommends scheduling frequent breaks in shaded or air-conditioned environments. Anyone experiencing heat should be moved to a cool, shaded place. Heatstroke is an emergency! Call 911.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News Network.

You can check these National Weather Service websites for updated weather information: Twin Cities, Duluth, La Crosse, Wis., Sioux Falls, SD and Grand Forks, ND

A cold front will gradually slide across Minnesota Saturday evening and overnight. Highs Sunday will be in the 70s in northern Minnesota, with 80s elsewhere:

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Highest levels expected on Sunday

National Weather Service

Highs on Monday will be in the 90s in far southern Minnesota, with 70s farther north:

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Highest levels expected on Monday

National Weather Service

Temperatures in some locations in the Twin Cities metro area could reach 90 degrees Monday afternoon.

Highs in the metro area are expected to reach the mid 90s on Tuesday, followed by the upper 90s on Wednesday, then the mid 90s Thursday and upper 80s on Friday.

A rain-free weekend in most areas

Saturday and most of Sunday will be rain-free in Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Some scattered rain is possible in northern Minnesota Sunday afternoon.

NOAA's North American Average Scale (NAM) forecast model shows the likely rain pattern from 7am Sunday to 9pm Sunday:

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Radar simulation from 7am Sunday to 7pm Sunday

Noah, via Tropicaltidbits.com

Hurricane Hillary

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Friday/Saturday night. Hillary's morning satellite episode

Noah, via Tropicaltidbits.com

Hurricane Hillary is now a Category 3 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. Hillary is heading toward the Baja California Peninsula in Mexico, and is expected to be a tropical storm when its center moves over southernmost California late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

This is the projected path, plus the cone of uncertainty, for Hurricane Hillary's center:

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The forecast path of Hurricane Hillary

National Hurricane Center NWS

Below are the total possible rainfalls at the end of this week and until the beginning of next week:

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Possibility of rain from Hillary from Saturday to Tuesday

National Hurricane Center NWS

Rainfall totals are expected to range between 4 inches and 6 inches in parts of Southern California and Southern Nevada, with isolated amounts of up to 10 inches.

This is Saturday morning's update on Hillary, from the NWS National Hurricane Center:

Hurricane Hillary Advisory No. 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 900 AM MDT Saturday, August 19, 2023 …Hillary heads toward the central Baja California Peninsula… …Catastrophic, life-threatening flooding likely over Baja California and southern California Western United States through Monday… Summary at 900 AM EST… 1500 UTC… Information ———————– ———————- —————- Location…22.3N 113.5W about 235 miles…375 kilometers west of the southern tip of Baja California about 395 miles.. .630 km S Punta Eugenia Mexico Maximum sustained winds…125 mph…205 km/h Current motion…NW or 345 degrees at 16 mph…26 km/h Minimum pressure Central…947 MB…27.97 inches Watches and Warnings ——————– Changes with this advisory: None. Summary of watches and warnings in effect: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for… * The Baja California Peninsula from Punta Abriojos to Cabo San Quentin A hurricane watch is in effect for… * The Baja California Peninsula north of Cabo San Quentin to Ensenada Storm Warning Equatorial in effect for… * Baja California Peninsula from Punta Abriojos south * Baja California Peninsula the entire east coast * Baja California Peninsula north of Cabo San Quentin to the California/Mexico border * Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas * California/Mexico border to Point Mugu * Catalina Island A tropical storm watch is in effect for… * Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. The warning is typically issued 36 hours before the first tropical storm force winds occur, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations must be completed quickly to protect lives and property. A tornado watch means that tornado conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the first tropical storm force winds occur, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the southwestern United States should be monitoring Hillary's progress. For storm information specific to your area of ​​the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your National Weather Service. Discussion and Forecast ———————- At 900 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Hillary was located near latitude 22.3 north, Longitude 113.5 West. Hillary is moving toward the north-northwest at 16 mph (26 km/h). The hurricane is expected to accelerate as it moves from north-northwest to north during the next day or two. On the forecast track, Hillary's center will move near the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula tonight and Sunday morning and then move across Southern California Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Maximum wind speeds approach 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Hillary is a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. It is expected to weaken as a hurricane, but Hillary will remain a hurricane as it approaches the western coast of the Baja California Peninsula. Hurricane Hillary is expected to weaken and become a tropical storm before reaching Southern California. Hurricane winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). Sustained winds of 44 mph (70 km/h) and gusts of up to 63 mph (102 km/h) were recently reported at Cabo San Lucas Marina. The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mbar (27.97 in). Hazards affecting land ———————- Hillary's key messages can be found in the tropical cyclone discussion under AWIPS MIATCDEP4 and WMO heading WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes. gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml. Rainfall: Hillary is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 10 inches, across parts of the northern Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night. Locally catastrophic flash floods and urban flooding are expected, especially in the northern parts of the peninsula. Heavy rain is expected across the southwestern United States, peaking late tonight and into Sunday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, are expected across parts of Southern California and Southern Nevada. Serious to catastrophic flooding is expected. Elsewhere across parts of the western U.S., rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, bringing localized flash flooding, some significant. WINDS: Tornado conditions are expected within the tornado warning area tonight and early Sunday and are possible during a tornado watch on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions occur within the southern portion of the Tropical Storm Warning area and will spread northward today and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Southern California Sunday afternoon. Winds can be particularly strong and gusty in and near high areas. Winds are expected to be higher inland near and along the forecast path. Storm surge: Dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding along Mexico's western Baja California Peninsula near where the center passes the coast in onshore wind areas, or east of the center if Hillary makes landfall. The boom will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is possible along the northern Gulf Coast of California Sunday through early Monday. Tornadoes: One or two tornadoes may occur Sunday from mid-morning to evening over portions of the Lower Colorado River Valley, Mojave Desert and Imperial Valley areas. SURF: Large swells generated by Hillary will affect parts of the Baja California Peninsula and Southern California over the next two days. These swells have the potential to cause life-threatening waves and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

The National Hurricane Center will issue updates on Hillary every three hours or so.

Programming note

You can hear live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35am, 9:35am and 4:39pm every Saturday and Sunday.

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