Fall harvest forecast for the United States

Conditions for the rest of September should be largely benign as well. The weather pattern is a bit progressive this week and next. This usually indicates several systems are in motion, which should be true. But the models do not expect heavy rainfall from these systems, except in the central and southern plains, as I mentioned above. A system moving into the northern Plains later next week looks promising to produce areas of rain there, but models are drying out this system as it races quickly into Canada, although the front may trail through the Corn Belt. I’ll reserve judgment on that part of the forecast, but overall, it doesn’t look like there’s a lot of rain in the forecast for most of the country for the rest of the month. However, a tropical storm could ruin this forecast, and yes, we will be watching both Hurricane Lee, which is expected to impact only the Northeast this weekend, and another storm currently in the central tropical Atlantic that may pass close to the Atlantic. US mainland late next week or weekend; But at the moment, there are no imminent threats.

As we move into October, models indicate a more variable weather pattern, including more of the eastern basin. Such a feature would mean cooler temperatures in parts of the Plains and upper Midwest and periods of precipitation throughout areas east of the Rocky Mountains, although nothing to indicate the presence of large storm systems. For those harvesting during the month, the weather is looking fairly mild again, although there may be some occasional short-term delays as systems pass through. The tropics will also need to be watched with very warm sea surface temperatures there.

However, once we reach November, the pattern begins to take the form of an El Niño. This encourages storm systems across the southern tier of the United States and warmth to the north. Early in the month, we may be stuck in the hangover of October, bringing cooler conditions below the trough and some occasional showers. If the two line up, it could mean some early snow across the northern tier of the country, but that’s just speculation. However, harvesting will likely become easier later in the month across northern areas as the jet stream splits and brings warmth. Anyone throughout the South who has not yet completed harvest or other field work may find themselves facing more difficult conditions if the forecast comes true.

However, the harvest weather is in fairly good shape, especially for the majority of the country. Soft soil in limited areas will now largely dry out this month. The main concern then is to recharge the soil in winter. Outside of the South and Southeast, which may include parts of the Central Plains as well, soil recharge during drought is a regional proposition depending on where storms eventually track.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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