Farmers’ almanacs announced their winter weather forecast

September is a strange time of year when it comes to weather. Some people are clinging to the last days of summer, not wanting to think about the changing season ahead. Others happily wrap their hands around their pumpkin latte and embrace all things cuddly.

Finally, there are the people who are just skipping fall and setting their sights on the possibility of snow. Regardless, it’s time for the winter games to start, because the forecasts from both the Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmers’ Almanac are here. And yes, there is a difference between the two publications despite the similar names.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac was first published in 1792 in Lewiston, Maine. The “New” Farmers’ Almanac was launched in 1818 and is based in Dublin, New Hampshire. The primary difference between the two is how well they predict the weather – 18 months for The Old Farmer’s Almanac versus 16 months for the Farmers’ Almanac.

Although these may be two separate posts, if you like snow, you’ll be happy with what forecasters have to say about the winter of 2023 and 2024.

Both the Old Farmers’ Almanac and the Farmers’ Almanac predict that the United States will see cooler-than-normal temperatures and above-average precipitation. Here are two forecast maps for comparison.

First, here’s the winter forecast from The Old Farmer’s Almanac:

Here is the Farmers’ Almanac forecast map:

Both publications suggest that the shift away from the milder winters seen in recent years may be caused by rising ocean temperatures off the coast of South America, known to meteorologists as El Niño. When ocean temperatures are warmer, it results in wetter than normal conditions in the United States

While both agree that the country’s overall winter will see average or above-average rainfall, they differ in their temperature forecasts in different regions and say they may range from moderate to cold. You can see these differences across different regions, such as the Pacific Northwest, Northeast, and lower Southern states.

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How does the Farmers’ Almanac predict the weather?

The Old Farmer’s Almanac says it forecasts long-range weather based on a “secret formula” derived by its founder, but the publication has “improved and enhanced this formula using the latest techniques and modern scientific calculations” based on solar science, meteorology and climatology. Meanwhile, the person who serves in the Farmers’ Almanac’s official role as weather forecaster — whose identity remains secret — “possesses an exclusive formula that includes various elements such as sunspot activity, moon tidal movements, planetary positions, and more,” according to the calendar. Much like the old Farmer’s Almanac, the Farmers’ Almanac traces its forecasting models back to its founder, and the publication specifically states that satellite radar is not part of the process.

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center doesn’t release its official forecast until mid-October. It differs from the two calendars because their forecasts are based on scientific data collected over decades, not on the weather patterns and solar cycle algorithms of the two calendars.

Although we don’t yet have forecasts from our national meteorologists for January and beyond, CPC forecasts for October, November and December show that most of the United States is seeing milder fall and that only the Southeast has above-average precipitation through December 2023. .

Here’s the CPC temperature map:

Here is the precipitation map:

With the official start of winter not scheduled until December 21, there’s plenty of time to enjoy the beautiful fall weather for a few months and prepare for the coming cold.

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