NWS offices throughout the Southeast have issued flood watches for parts of central Alabama, northern Georgia, northwestern South Carolina and western North Carolina.
The morning model shows between one and two inches of rain across north and central Alabama through Monday evening. Lands are somewhat saturated due to early morning rainfall and flooding is possible along creeks and creeks and in urban areas and low-lying areas with poor drainage.
Fall water values on the 12z BMX rig were 1.40 inches, which is close to the maximum for this time of year in central Alabama. The standard PW value for February 11 in BMX is 1.65 inches. This means there is plenty of moisture available for heavy rainfall.
Looking to the west, we see severe thunderstorms and tornadoes watching over northern Louisiana and southeast Texas.
Severe storms are moving through north Louisiana at this hour. These storms are rising supercells that produced large hail in northwest Louisiana, but have weakened in the past hour. The SPC estimated the chance of a severe thunderstorm in northern Louisiana at 40 percent in the short term.
There were two tornado warnings for southeast Texas, but they were canceled and expired.
There is broad surface low pressure over the Texas Coastal Plain late this morning. The warm front is located over central Louisiana and southern Mississippi to southern Alabama. This warm front will be the focus of severe thunderstorms later this afternoon. Alabama will enjoy a respite in the early afternoon, with storms developing again over Louisiana around 2 PM, moving toward southern Mississippi around 3-4 PM and into Alabama around 6-7 PM, and continuing until midnight.
It appears there may be an early wave of storms starting over southwest Alabama starting at 2 PM that will move northeast across the southern portion of the state. We’ll be keeping an eye on those too.
category: Weather in Alabama, all posts, severe weather