Flood Threat in Florida as Hurricane Center Tracks Two Systems – Orlando Sentinel
The National Hurricane Center has been tracking two systems that have a chance of developing into the next depression or tropical storm of the season, including one off the coast of Florida and another in the Caribbean.
The system brewing near South Florida is an area of low pressure that has already caused flooding to threaten the state with flood watches on the coast from Miami to Volusia County as well as the inland portions of Brevard and Volusia Counties.
The National Weather Service has issued a tornado warning for Marathon, Big Pine Key and Key Colony Beach until 7 a.m. Wednesday as crews move in across the state.
Heavy rain that has already dropped as much as 5 inches through Tuesday in places could combine with King Tides along the state’s southeast coast to increase the risk of flooding.
The National Weather Service in Melbourne said central Florida could see winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of up to 40 mph along the coast and within Interstate 95 and gusts of 15-20 mph with gusts of up to 40 mph along the coast and within Interstate 95. Wind gusts of 30 mph across the rest of east-central Florida. A wind advisory is in effect until at least Thursday afternoon.
Coastal erosion is also expected to continue with large breaking waves of 6 to 9 feet, rough surf and waves rising to the dune line at high tide.
Meteorologists said: “During high tide yesterday morning, the waves completely covered many beaches up to the seawall and sand dunes, and the waves were heading toward roads and walkways.”
Here are the most likely rain amounts versus the worst rain amounts (1 in 10) through Thursday morning. Confidence is higher with heavy rainfall along the entire southeast Florida coast. pic.twitter.com/yxGhn0E9VD
– NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) November 15, 2023
It is expected to move to the northeast near the Bahamas and off the East Coast of the United States over the weekend.
“Although development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely, this system is expected to produce gusty winds and heavy rain across portions of South Florida, the Florida Keys and the Bahamas over the next two days,” forecasters said.
The NHC gives it a 10% chance of developing within the next two to seven days.
In the southwestern Caribbean Sea, the National Center of Meteorology backed down slightly from forecasting the development of a large area of disorganized rain and thunderstorms from a broad trough of low pressure.
“Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for the development of this system, and a tropical depression may form late this week as the system begins to move northeastward across the western and central parts of the Caribbean Sea,” meteorologists said.
The National Hurricane Center warned that it could threaten Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands in the coming days.
“Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall over parts of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles through the end of this week,” meteorologists said.
The NHC gives it a 30% chance of developing in the next two days and a 50% chance in the next seven.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30, has already produced 21 official systems and 19 named storms. The final names available from this year’s initial list of 21 are Vince and Whitney.