Forecasts indicate a 14% chance of snowfall of 6 inches or more.

Forecasts indicate a 14% chance of snowfall of 6 inches or more.

Will New York City see measurable snow right before Valentine’s Day?

As the weather forecast shows, a powerful winter storm is creeping up the East Coast, and just like your favorite romantic comedy, it’s giving us a “will they/won’t they” for a major snow accumulation on Tuesday.

The chances of seeing 6 inches or more of snow were 14% as of Sunday morning, according to the National Weather Service, but the possibility of snowfall remains.

Here’s what you need to know about Tuesday’s winter storm, from the weather forecast timeline to the expected snow totals:

Sunday

Warmer temperatures continue in New York City with highs reaching 50 degrees. We will see lows in the upper 30s/lower 40s.

Monday

The day starts out sunny and nice, with temperatures reaching 49.

Monday evening

Temperatures will be warm enough on Monday that the storm will likely start dumping rain across the region. But as the system continues to move toward the northeast and eventually moves off the East Coast, it will begin pulling in cold air from the north and Canada, which will turn precipitation into snow.

Tuesday at 1 am

A winter storm watch is in effect for inland areas of northeastern New Jersey, the lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut.

According to the National Meteorological Authority, “The storm will bring a period of moderate to heavy snow within the country, and the rain will turn into a mixture of rain and snow on the coast.”

Wet snow can fall at rates of up to two inches per hour in these inland communities.

Tuesday morning

FOX Weather’s exclusive future radar and clouds show the potential for a nor’easter this week. (Fox Weather)

Conditions are likely to make movement hazardous, and schools across the region are likely to be closed.

Immediately after the evening flight, rain is expected to turn to snow in New York City.

If the storm moves north and temperatures remain above freezing, New York City will see accumulation ranging from zero to very little. However, a southerly track combined with cooler temperatures will increase snowfall totals along the coast.

Tuesday at 10 am

The winter storm watch ends. The sky is expected to be clear by nightfall.

By the pre-dawn hours Tuesday, widespread snowfall is expected in parts of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. However, where the rain/snow line will affect snow totals.

Snowfall forecast for the New York tri-state area Monday through Tuesday, February 12-13, 2024. (FOX Weather)

Total snow forecast

New York City

  • Central Park: 1.4 inches
  • JFK Airport: 0.9″

Long Island

  • Sysoset: 1.5″
  • Islip: 0.8″
  • Westhampton: 0.8″
  • Montauk: 1.0″

Lower Hudson Valley

  • White Plains: 3.7 inches
  • New City: 6.3 inches
  • Cold spring: 7.8″
  • Middletown: 9.1 inches

New Jersey

  • Newark: 1.9 inches
  • Paramos: 3.2″
  • West Milford: 7.7 inches

Connecticut

  • Bridgeport: 4.0 inches
  • New Haven: 5.5 inches
  • Danbury: 7.4 inches
  • Waterbury: 7.9 inches
  • East demolition: 6.5″
  • New London: 3.2 inches
  • Norwich: 6.7 inches

What are the chances of heavy snow accumulation?

According to the NWS, New York City has a 14% chance of seeing 6 or more inches of snow if the storm moves south with colder temperatures and heavy snow bands.

High amounts of snowfall due to the winter storm on Tuesday

These conditions could also bring more than a foot of snow in the interior of the Lower Hudson Valley and Connecticut. Paramus could see 8 inches of snow, and parts of Long Island could see 6 inches of snow.

Low amounts of snowfall for Tuesday’s winter storm

On the flip side, the storm could also bring zero accumulations in New York, Long Island and metro New Jersey, with just 2 inches north and west of the city.

Midwinter weather forecast: ‘6 more weeks’ of winter

Central Park in New York City recorded 2.3 inches of snow this winter, however Fox 5 New YorkThe region has the potential for at least 15 more inches, according to his mid-winter forecast, said Nick Gregory of the district.

Just one or two storms will help us reach that projected total, and Nick expects February to provide ideal conditions for winter storm development.

The United States is experiencing a strong El Niño phenomenon, which means the Tri-State is likely to see warmer-than-average temperatures and wetter-than-average precipitation.

As we move forward, strong El Niño conditions will continue, meaning February will see the same type of weather we did: above-average temperatures and snow and rain events.

“I think it’s going to be a long winter here, and I think we’ll probably see a good burst of cold weather in mid-February (creating the potential for a snow storm or two),” Nick said.

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