Groundhog Day 2024 Predictions | Weather.com

Groundhog Day 2024 Predictions |  Weather.com

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  • Punxsutawney Phil will make his annual forecast Friday morning.
  • The forecast calls for cloudy skies, favoring no shade and an early start to spring, according to legend.
  • But history shows a silhouette sighting and six more weeks of winter are the most likely outcome.

All eyes will be on Punxsutawney Phil this Friday morning for Groundhog Day in Pennsylvania, where, according to legend, we'll find out if early spring is just around the corner or if we'll have another six weeks of winter to go through.

Phil will make his prediction about sunrise: The groundhog will appear near the middle of sidereal winter at 7:28 a.m. ET.

If the groundhog sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter, according to legend. But if it doesn't, early spring and above-average temperatures are on the way.

Groundhog Club handler AJ Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, a groundhog who predicts the weather, during the 137th Groundhog Day celebration at Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, Thursday, Feb. 2, 2023. Phil's handlers said the groundhog predicted six more weeks of weather. .  winter.  (AP Photo/Barry Reger)Groundhog Club handler AJ Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, a groundhog who predicts the weather, during the 137th Groundhog Day celebration at Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, Thursday, Feb. 2, 2023. Phil's handlers said the groundhog predicted six more weeks of weather. .  winter.  (AP Photo/Barry Reger)

Groundhog Club wizard AJ Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, a groundhog who predicts the weather, during the 137th Groundhog Day celebration at Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, Thursday, February 2, 2023.

(AP Photo/Barry Reger)

Here's what the Friday morning forecast says: Cloudy conditions and temperatures in the mid to upper 30s are expected in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania for AD. The lack of direct sunlight due to the clouds means that Phil is unlikely to see his shadow, as we head into an early start to spring.

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Forecast at 7 a.m. ET Friday

(Punxsutawney will be sandwiched between a departing cold front and an incoming high pressure system.)

History shows that an elephant seeing its shadow is the most likely outcome: Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow five times more often than he did not, based on historical records. Last year I followed the same scenario.

Phil has now seen his shadow 107 times, without a shadow 20 times (10 years of data missing), according to records from 1887 through 2023.

Shade or no shadow, Hill is not a good forecaster: In general, groundhogs are not very accurate, and NOAA said Punxsutawney Phil has no “predictive skill.”

Of course, even organizers of the annual Groundhog Day event in western Pennsylvania admit that turning to large rodents to predict the weather is mostly a way to break up the monotony of winter.

Phil's accuracy was only 40% from 2013 to 2022, according to data collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Last year's announcement of six more weeks of winter was a mixed result depending on where you live. Much of the West was cooler than average in February and March, which is right in line with Phil's judgement. But the east did not follow this scenario and was warmer than average, especially in February.

Here's when Groundhog Day began: The first mention of Groundhog Day came in 1886 in Punxsutawney.

Over the years, several other locations began using their own groundhog, including General Beauregard Lee of Atlanta, Dunkirk Dave of Dunkirk, New York, and Jimmy of Sun Prairie, Wisconsin.

Chris Dolce He has been a senior meteorologist at Weather.com for over 10 years after starting his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.

The Weather Company's primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment, and the importance of science in our lives.

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