Hawaii County weather forecast for November 19, 2023: Big Island now

Hello

today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs are about 83 near shore to 66 to 71 at 4,000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph, shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows are around 66 near shore to around 52 at 4,000 feet. Winds are westerly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour in the evening, becoming light.

Monday: The weather is mostly sunny in the morning, then cloudy in most areas with scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs are about 83 near shore to 66 to 71 at 4,000 feet. Winds are northeasterly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

KONA

today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 81 to 86 near shore to about 72 near 5,000 feet. Winds are southerly, reaching speeds of 15 knots per hour. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows from 66 to 72 near shore to about 53 near 5,000 feet. Light wind.

Monday: The weather is mostly sunny in the morning, then cloudy in most areas with scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near shore to about 72 near 5,000 feet. Light wind. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

water

today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs are about 82 near shore to 73 to 79 near 3,000 feet. Winds will become light northwesterly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows are around 65 near shore to 51 to 59 near 3,000 feet. Light wind.

Monday: The weather is mostly sunny in the morning, then cloudy in most areas with scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs are about 82 near shore to 73 to 79 near 3,000 feet. Winds are easterly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Koala

today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs are about 82 near shore to 73 to 79 near 3,000 feet. Winds will become light northwesterly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows are around 65 near shore to 51 to 59 near 3,000 feet. Light wind.

Monday: The weather is mostly sunny in the morning, then cloudy in most areas with scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs are about 82 near shore to 73 to 79 near 3,000 feet. Winds are easterly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

South of the Big Island

today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs are about 84 near shore to about 73 near 5,000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph turning to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Tonight: partly cloudy. Lows are around 68 near shore to around 52 near 5,000 feet. Light wind.

Monday: The weather will be mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs are about 84 near shore to about 73 near 5,000 feet. Winds are east at 15 mph and will shift to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Bona

today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs are about 83 near shore to 66 to 71 at 4,000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph, shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows are around 66 near shore to around 52 at 4,000 feet. Winds are westerly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour in the evening, becoming light.

Monday: The weather is mostly sunny in the morning, then cloudy in most areas with scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs are about 83 near shore to 66 to 71 at 4,000 feet. Winds are northeasterly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Wekoloa

today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs are about 83 near shore to 67 to 74 above 4,000 feet. Winds are southwesterly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour, turning to northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Low temperatures range around 70 near shore to 48 to 56 above 4,000 feet. Light wind.

Monday: The weather is mostly sunny in the morning, then cloudy in most areas with scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs are about 83 near shore to 67 to 74 above 4,000 feet. Winds are northeasterly, reaching speeds of 10 knots per hour, turning to northwesterly in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

summary

Fresh south to southwesterly winds will spread over the state today as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Rain will be more widespread on Kauai, where there will also be a small chance of thunderstorms. The front will push through Oahu tonight, then stop over Maui County on Monday. The front will bring some rainy weather as it moves, with northeasterly winds shifting and becoming breezy behind, with the focus of the shower shifting to leeward slopes and coastlines. The front will gradually dissipate Monday night and Tuesday, with light to moderate trading and fairly typical trade wind weather expected Tuesday through the end of the work week. Another front could shift winds south and bring increased precipitation next weekend.

discussion

Currently, a cold front is at the surface about 125 miles west-northwest of Kauai and moving east at about 15 mph. Winds responded and strengthened to breezy levels from the south-southwest early this morning. Infrared satellite images show partly cloudy conditions across the state, with cloud coverage highest over Kauai. Radar images show frequent showers moving across Kauai, and scattered prefrontal showers moving toward leeward sections of the remaining small islands. Meanwhile, only a few light showers could be seen moving toward the southeast-facing slopes of the Big Island. The main focus in the short term remains on the incoming front and the associated weather it will bring to the islands.
State-of-the-art model solutions continue to show some variations, but have remained remarkably consistent from run to run. The GFS stays further ahead with the front, allowing it to reach Maui County, while the ECMWF holds the front over Oahu. The two models have not changed much over the past 24 hours, and the current forecasts appear to be in good shape, reflecting a combination of these solutions.
Active southerly to southwesterly winds will continue today before the front approaches. The front will push through Kauai later today, Oahu tonight, then stop near Maui County on Monday. It is expected that moderate to active northerly to northeasterly winds will blow after the frontal corridor. The front will gradually dissipate over the central islands on Monday and Tuesday night, with a weak chain building north of the state. Northeast trading will decline to moderate levels Monday night, with light to moderate trading prevailing Tuesday into Friday. Winds could shift south next weekend before the next front approaches.
As for the remaining weather details, increasing south-southwest flow will bring some pre-frontal rain to the windward areas of Oahu and Maui County today as the front approaches from the northwest. More rain is expected on Kauai, where there will be enough instability for some heavy rain and perhaps some thunderstorms as well. It looks like a more unstable air mass will rise northeast of the islands by tonight, but we will continue to monitor that closely. The front and associated band of moisture will push across Oahu tonight and then stall across Maui County on Monday, bringing with it some rainy weather. The front will become increasingly oriented from west to east over time, so rainy conditions will persist behind the front especially in leeward areas. Both the GFS and ECMWF continue to show the deepest moisture associated with the residual front north of the Big Island, so fairly dry weather will prevail here through Monday.
The front will gradually dissipate across the central islands Monday and Tuesday night, bringing a return to typical trade wind weather characterized mainly by windward and mocha showers that should continue through the end of the work week. An incoming front may bring an increase in precipitation next weekend.

airline

Fresh southerly winds will bring rain and pockets of MVFR over Kauai, Oahu and adjacent waters over the next few hours while greater coverage of showers moves toward Kauai from the west. The AIRMET Sierra Mountain Darkening will likely remain in effect on Kauai until the front passes later today. Rainfall will then expand in coverage near Oahu as a positively degenerating frontal boundary reaches during the onset of overnight cooling. AIRMET Sierra may be needed to reach Oahu late this evening. It is expected to be the prevailing VFR for the rest of the island chain. Southern regions move to stormy northeasterly movements in the wake of the front.
AIRMET Sierra for tempo mtn obsc valid on Kauai.

Navy

A front approaching just west of our waters will cause winds to intensify to the moderate to locally strong range from south to southwest today, especially for the waters around Kauai and Oahu. The front will push the island chain down this afternoon and into Monday, bringing numerous rain showers and locally fresh to strong trade winds as a ridge of high pressure builds up behind the front. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for western waters throughout the day. The SCA may need to be changed during the night as conditions warrant, especially with forward traffic.
A small to moderate northwest swell will continue to provide a slight boost to west-facing shores today. However, large medium-period waves from the north-northwest (340-350 degrees) are expected to begin arriving late tonight, providing high-level surf. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) will likely be issued from tonight through Monday for north and select west-facing beaches. If observations are higher than guidance, a high surf warning (HSW) may be issued for primarily north-facing beaches. This swell will continue as it moves more northward on Tuesday, then slowly subside Wednesday into Thursday. This may lead to moderate swells in ports like Hilo and Kahului from the northerly swell component, so buoys will be closely monitored as the event develops. In the long-range forecast, another potential swell may develop northwest of HSW late next week for north-facing shores.
The off-season southern swell will continue today near the summer average, then decline over the next few days. Waves along east-facing beaches will remain rough and choppy as the trade winds return this week. Although east-facing beaches exposed to the northerly swell will see a rise coinciding with the northerly swell.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advice

Small Boat Advisory until 6pm GMT this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters and Oahu Leeward Waters.

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Data provided by NOAA.gov