Heavy snow and heavy rain are possible in parts of the state as the winter storm approaches
Forecasters with the National Weather Service say “significant snow accumulation” is likely in northern New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania as a winter storm moves through our region late Monday and early Tuesday.
However, they stress that there is still a high degree of uncertainty about the full impacts of the storm, from its track and timing to its strength and potential for snowfall. Major computer guidance models continue to show a wide range of scenarios, from rain changing to light snow to rain mixing with snow and changing to heavy snow in parts of the Garden State.
“Confidence remains low, as there is uncertainty in timing and position between models, but the trend is for significant snow accumulation across the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey, but this may extend into the fall line,” New Jersey’s main weather service said. The Forecast Office said in its latest forecast discussion on Friday afternoon.
The fall line is the geographical area that generally extends near the Interstate 95 corridor in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, separating the Garden State’s flat coastal plain to the south and east from its hillier terrain to the north and west.
“Minimum gatherings are then possible in the I-95 corridor and the south and east areas Tuesday morning,” the agency added.
The National Weather Service said in an email that the storm will begin in much of New Jersey as rain on Monday and could become heavy at times before temperatures begin to turn colder and the rain turns to snow Monday night or early Tuesday.
“Rain is expected to mix to snow north and west of I-95 late Monday and Tuesday night,” the agency said. “Rain may mix with wet snow and turn to wet snow before ending in the south and east.”
The Meteorological Service stressed that “snowfall amounts will depend greatly on how quickly rain turns to snow, as well as on altitude.” Temperatures may drop to freezing or just above freezing as transition to snow occurs.
Earlier Friday, AccuWeather meteorologists released their first snowfall accumulation map, predicting 1 to 3 inches of snow in most of northern New Jersey and 3 to 6 inches of snow in the far northwestern parts of the Garden State.
Steven DiMartinoAs much as 4 to 8 inches of snow could fall in the northern third of New Jersey, based on the latest computer guidance models, says the head of a weather forecasting company in New York, New Jersey. But he stressed that his forecasts are likely to be revised over the next few days as new data emerges.
Right now, most of South Jersey is thought to get rain, with some snowflakes mixed in, and most of Central Jersey may get a light coating of snow on grass surfaces but a little on roads, due to rain during the early phase of the storm.
Based on early forecasts, the National Weather Service’s New York regional office says there is a 10% to 30% chance of 6 inches or more of snow across mountainous terrain in northwest New Jersey and New York’s Hudson Valley.
“This system has the potential to bring accumulating snowfall to parts or all of the area during this time, but there is still a large pattern spreading out in important details,” the office said late Friday afternoon. “Please monitor the forecast over the weekend for the latest.”
Current weather radar
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Lynn Melisurgo It can be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com Or on X in @LensReality.