Helpful rain is possible in Houston on Friday along a stalled front
The skies opened Thursday across Southeast Texas and persistent rain fell on dry land — a sight to behold, to be sure — but the weather is expected to once again provide much-needed precipitation on Friday.
Will the rain affect your weekend? How much rain can we expect? Is this the beginning of a cold and unstable weather pattern? Let’s dive into the details.
More rain coming Friday
Another disturbance is expected above along a stalled frontal boundary that extends from the Hill Country into southeast Texas. Determining the timing of these fast-moving waves of rain and thunderstorms is a task full of uncertainty, but most model guidance suggests two rounds of activity.
The first batch of showers will develop during the morning and will likely be hit or miss. Individual cells that form will be able to bring heavy rain and possibly gusty winds for a brief period. A second wave of storms is likely by the afternoon as major disturbances spread along the stalled front. Storms will once again be able to produce locally heavy rain and perhaps some gusty winds for a brief period, but strong storms are not expected to be many.
Rainfall totals will likely range from a half inch to more than an inch, but higher totals cannot be ruled out. One of Wednesday’s thunderstorms produced 2 to 4 inches of rain across an area near Texas City.
Rainfall Wednesday through Thursday was widespread, but some areas of Southeast Texas received more rain than others. One spot was Texas City, where an estimated 2 to 4 inches of rain fell.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationFriday will not be too cloudy as the sky will be mostly partly cloudy with no rain falling from the sky. To end the work week, high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Dew points, which are temperatures that indicate the level of humidity in the air, will be in the lower 70s. This means temperatures could reach the upper 90s during the afternoon, so it will be steamy.
Read more: Humidity is often talked about, but did you know we should be talking about dew points instead?
Which day is likely to be the rainiest?
Rain chances remain part of the forecast through the weekend, but don’t worry if you have plans to get outside. There won’t be a complete washout, as widespread rain on Saturday will likely give way to more isolated showers by Sunday.
It is difficult to try to determine when storms develop in this current pattern, but the midday hours appear to be the most at risk for more numerous storms on Saturday. As the frontal boundary responsible for maintaining the unstable weather in Southeast Texas heads offshore by Sunday, rain chances are expected to decrease slightly. While an isolated storm cannot be completely ruled out on Sunday, the chances drop to about 30% or 40% for most people. If you have to pick a day to be outside when rain is less likely to force you inside, pick Sunday.
Highs are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s this weekend with dew points around 70 degrees, resulting in a heat index of 95 to 97 degrees each afternoon. It’s not quite like fall, but we’ll totally appreciate anything under 100 degrees.
Will the Heat Dome return next week?
The simple answer: somewhat, but probably not. A series of high pressure will build aloft over the next week. Yes, this definitely looks like what produced the scary heat dome before. But not every ridge that develops at the middle and upper levels is considered a heat dome.
The weather pattern above indicates that temperatures will rise by the middle of next week. While high temperatures will likely remain below 100 degrees, most of us will see highs in the mid to upper 90s.
Axial weatherWe will see daily maximum temperatures start to rise by the middle of next week and beyond, with temperatures expected to be a few degrees warmer than is typical for mid-September. Expect highs to peak in the mid-90s offshore, with no true fall cold front in the next week or so. Be patient, friends: The big cooling will arrive at some point, likely sooner rather than later.
