Here’s Michigan’s winter weather forecast for 2023-2024

If you like cold and snowy winters, don’t get your hopes up in Michigan this upcoming season.

El Niño will bring warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the northern United States this winter season, according to the latest winter outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its newly updated 2023-2024 winter outlook this week, predicting wetter-than-average conditions in northern Alaska, parts of the West, the southern Plains, the Southeast, the Gulf Coast, and the lower, drier Mid-Atlantic region. – Wetter than average weather conditions across the northern tier of the United States, especially in the northern Rockies, the high plains, and near the Great Lakes.

“The enhanced southern jet stream and associated moisture often experienced during strong El Niño events support high probabilities of above-average precipitation over the Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeastern states this winter,” said John Gottschalk, head of NASA’s Operational Forecasting Branch. Climate Prediction Center.

What it means for Michigan

Temperatures

According to NOAA’s winter forecast, there is a 40-50% chance that Michigan will see above-average seasonal temperatures through February 2024, which is the case for most of the Great Lakes region.

“Warmer than average temperatures are favored throughout the northern tier of the United States and most of the Far West.”

falling

In terms of rain, snow and all that fun winter weather, due to the expected warmer conditions, there is a 40-50% chance that Michigan will see below average precipitation, much lower than its Midwest neighbors.

“Conditions are expected to be drier than average in parts of the northern Rockies and central Great Lakes region, especially in Michigan, northern Ohio and Indiana.”

Conditions will likely be wetter than average in northern Alaska, some areas west from parts of California to the south-central Rocky Mountains, the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast, and the southeast and mid-Atlantic.

About NOAA’s seasonal forecast

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) seasonal outlook provides the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above, near, or below average, and how drought conditions are expected to change in the coming months. The forecast does not indicate seasonal snowfall accumulations, as snow forecasts generally cannot be predicted more than a week in advance.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month forecast every month. The next update will be available on November 16.

“These forecasts provide critical guidance about the upcoming season for many industries and sectors in our economy, from energy producers to commodity markets to agricultural interests to tourism,” said Sarah Kapnick, Ph.D., chief scientist at NOAA. “With El Niño intensifying and more extreme weather events likely in an already record-breaking year, we are fortunate to have scientists like those at the Climate Prediction Center helping to build a weather and climate-ready nation by providing critical operational seasonal climate forecasts.”