Here’s your first look at the Thanksgiving forecast in Texas
It’s hard to believe that we’re already in the middle of November, and the holidays are right around the corner. This means you’re probably putting your travel plans together so you can spend Thanksgiving with family. Whether you’re traveling cross-country or driving hours across Texas, weather can cause a major headache and affect how long travel can take.
Now that we’re about a week away from Thanksgiving, the holiday weather pattern is coming into focus in the forecast. So far, conditions are looking particularly good across the Lone Star State, but rain could still interfere with some of our holiday travel.
Weather pattern
We have good model agreement for predicting that a cold front will pass through Texas on Monday. This is likely to increase rain chances in central and eastern Texas during the first half of the week, especially on Sunday and Monday. The façade will also let in cooler air, keeping temperatures cool, but not too cold, on Thanksgiving.
Some rain and weak storms are expected over Texas on Sunday. This may interfere with Thanksgiving travel if you plan to drive early in the week.
Axial weatherBut will the rain spoil any of the fun on Türkiye Day? Weather models expect most of the rain to move out of Texas by Tuesday into Wednesday as low pressure moves east of Texas. This is because higher atmospheric pressure is expected to develop after the cold front sweeps through. If this happens, beautiful weather can be expected over the Thanksgiving holiday. However, if the cold front moves slowly or low pressure persists longer, the chances of rain will also be higher.
So what are the expectations?
Because of the cold front that will move through the state early in the week, temperatures will likely be a little below average during Thanksgiving, but it won’t be too cold. High temperatures are expected in the mid-60s in places like San Antonio, Houston and Austin. North Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area, may be a few degrees cooler but temperatures are expected to drop nicely statewide.
Here’s a look at noon temperatures on Thanksgiving Day, according to the ECMWF model. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid 60s across much of Texas.
Axial weatherYou may experience some showers and weak thunderstorms if you plan to travel through Texas early in the week, especially between Sunday and Tuesday. The best rain chances will be in East Texas, but there will be slight chances to the west toward Austin and San Antonio.
By the time we get to Thanksgiving, rain chances look very low, and skies are expected to be sunny across much of the state. With Thanksgiving still more than a week away, the forecast could still change, especially regarding the location of low pressure by the middle of next week. But as of now, it’s looking good for frying a turkey and raising a football flag in the backyard.
Here’s the forecast for cloud cover expected at noon on Thanksgiving, according to the ECMWF model. Areas in white represent clear skies, while areas in blue show where clouds are expected.
Axial weatherWhat’s the “average” Thanksgiving in San Antonio?
Thanksgiving falls on the fourth Thursday in November. Since there is no specific date for each year, it makes it difficult to accurately calculate the “average” Thanksgiving weather. However, the holiday falls between November 22 and 28 every year. So we can average those days together and get a good idea of what Thanksgiving typically looks like in San Antonio.
For the week of November 22-28, the average high temperature in San Antonio is 70 degrees, and the average low temperature is 47 degrees. This year, we will likely be slightly below those averages, but perhaps only by a few degrees.
In terms of precipitation, San Antonio typically begins to see less rain in late November than expected earlier in the fall season. The record for Thanksgiving rain over the past 50 years came in 2000, when 1.39 inches of rain fell.
