high pressure
An area of high pressure along the mid-Atlantic coast will bring calm and mild conditions over the next two days before the next weather maker arrives late Friday.
Below this altitude, ideal conditions for radiative cooling existed overnight. As such, temperatures early this morning will vary slightly based on the terrain, ranging from the low 20s to mid 30s.
Sunshine and a light but steady southerly wind will make temperatures more consistent through the morning and into the afternoon. Most places will end up in the mid 50s this afternoon, with a few upper 50s around Rochester and in the Genesee Valley, and some low 50s for areas in and around Cortland County.
The sun’s rays sometimes mix with thin clouds, especially this afternoon. Clouds can sometimes be abundant enough to filter out some of the sun’s rays, but in general, they shouldn’t block much of the sun’s rays.
The sky will return clear this evening and continue throughout the night. However, the southerly winds will turn into southwesterly winds and should help keep temperatures from getting quite as cold as last night. Most places should see overnight lows in the mid 30s, although some cold pockets could approach 30 degrees.
Thursday should also be sunny with plenty of sunshine and some fluffy clouds from time to time. Winds will return to the south, but will be light, with speeds at or below 5 mph.
Temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than today, with more places in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees, and even those eastern mountainous areas reach the mid-50s.
Southerly winds will increase to about 10 mph on Thursday evening and clouds will increase after midnight. This will result in a mild night with temperatures remaining mainly in the low to mid 40s.
Unstable weather
Active southerly winds will continue until Friday. After things start to warm up in the morning, these winds will push high temperatures into the upper 50s, although clouds will be abundant.
Scattered rain is expected to begin on Friday. These showers will most likely be in the late afternoon and evening, but some isolated showers are also possible early in the day.
Rain will increase Friday night but is expected to be out of the area by Saturday morning. The winds shift to the northwest with the passage of a cold front during the night hours.
By Saturday morning, temperatures will be in the mid 30s with some morning showers and flurries off Lake Ontario. Some raindrops may continue into the midday and afternoon hours but otherwise it will be dry.
Clouds will continue throughout Saturday with northwesterly winds strengthening to 15 mph. Maximum winds will be in the 30-35 mph range. High temperatures will respond by struggling into the low 40s with some highs in the 30s.
A boost of atmospheric energy will combine with some strengthening from Lake Ontario on Sunday for more rain and flurries. Lower elevations may be able to warm a few more degrees into the mid-40s, but higher elevations may again fail to reach 40 degrees.
It will still be breezy on Sunday, but the winds will likely not be quite as strong as Saturday and will have a greater westerly component.
A small bubble of high pressure passes through Monday with some sunshine but cooler temperatures around 40 degrees.
Then a strong weather system will move in Tuesday and Tuesday night. There is some potential for strong winds and heavy rain that I will continue to monitor over the coming days.
The weather should be calmer by Thursday for Thanksgiving, although temperatures will likely be cold.
more information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecast
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This figure represents the average for the entire Finger Lakes region. Local variations should be expected.
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