Houston could see the risk of flash flooding late this week as rain returns

Over the past few weeks, Southeast Texas has been able to get some beneficial rain at times. It has not reached a significant extent in rain gauges or been particularly widespread, but a change in the weather pattern through the end of the week could lead to significant drought relief across a wider area. It can be very good at one time, as sometimes the sunniest soil months may not be able to absorb the heavy rain.

Thursday morning travel should be dry in the Houston area, although we’ll start the day with mostly cloudy skies. As the morning progresses, a strong band of thunderstorms associated with an upper-level disturbance will push into Houston by the midday hours.

Storms can bring the potential for beneficial rainfall, but rainfall rates may be too high for drought-stricken soils to handle. Localized flash flooding is possible during the early afternoon as storms move across Southeast Texas. Flash flooding will not be a widespread event, but areas prone to flash flooding during severe thunderstorms, such as urban locations with poor drainage, could see water pooling on roads.

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The first round of storms arriving in Houston late Thursday morning appears to be the most significant, possibly bringing gusty winds for a brief period. Model guidance indicates that drier conditions will prevail in the afternoon before additional isolated storms develop by early evening.

Clouds and rain will limit how high temperatures can get in the afternoon as some locations may remain in the 80s. If Houston doesn’t reach 90 degrees Thursday afternoon, it will be the first time since July 6. This is good news, even if your location doesn’t see much rain. If you miss rain at home, know that there are several additional days of good rain chances still in the forecast.

This is what radar could look like late Friday morning as storms move into Southeast Texas. Severe weather does not appear likely, but storms could produce locally heavy rain and flash flooding.


What is the forecast for Friday?

Like Thursday, Friday will see rain chances generally between 50 and 70 percent in Southeast Texas. Another upper-level disturbance will move from the Hill Country into southeast Texas along the stalled frontal boundary, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorms to the Houston area.

Does rain guarantee peace in your home? Unfortunately, there is still some uncertainty about how widespread the storms will be on Friday. Yes, storms will be fairly widespread, but that doesn’t guarantee that your backyard rain gauge will see a drop of useful rain. This weather pattern is one where you hope that out of three days with a greater than 50 percent chance of rain, you’ll get beneficial rain on at least one of those days. Perhaps the most welcome news is that with cloud cover and rain on the radar, high temperatures on Friday will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

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What is the forecast for this weekend?

The weather forecast this weekend looks to be 50/50, meaning Saturday continues to be a risk of showers and multiple thunderstorms. As our stalled frontal border moves into South Texas on Sunday, storm chances become more isolated. If you’re planning to stay outdoors to finally enjoy sub-100 degree weather, Sunday will likely be your best day because it will be dry for most of the day.

General rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is possible across Southeast Texas through September 17.  This would provide tremendous relief to the ongoing exceptional drought in the region.

General rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is possible across Southeast Texas through September 17. This would provide tremendous relief to the ongoing exceptional drought in the region.

Weather Prediction Center/Weather Pivotal

High temperatures will vary a bit this weekend, with Saturday’s low temperatures giving way to the mid-90s by Sunday. Despite the warmer weather on Sunday, it’s still unlikely that temperatures will “seem to be” just a degree or two warmer than the air temperature. After spending weeks on end with temperatures above 100 degrees, few of us are likely to complain much about temperatures in the mid-90s where Heat Index values ​​are a bit warmer.

What’s in store for next week?

A series of high pressure will begin to reappear in the desert southwest next week, bringing rain chances and increased warmth. We’re not necessarily talking triple-digit temperatures, but don’t be surprised to see a few temperatures in the upper 90s in the forecast early next week under mostly sunny skies. The only area that could see some scattered storms develop will be along and south of Interstate 10 where sea breeze thunderstorms will be possible.

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