Houston’s weekend forecast includes possible showers on Saturday

Saturday is the day with the most rain, so you’ll need to keep a close eye on the weather forecast if this is the day you plan to go out. The current pattern is challenging as to when the best rain chance will occur, however, models are indicating several showers will fall by the mid-morning hours. With temperatures rising and unsettled in the afternoon, sounds of thunder may force you to cut your pool time short and head indoors. Today won’t be a complete wash. In fact, most of us will experience more dry time during the day than rainy time. When it’s not raining, expect partly cloudy skies with highs generally in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

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Sunday is the day to choose a weekend getaway if you want to go out. The stationary front responsible for this week’s well-received rain is expected to move offshore by Sunday. Rain chances drop from 40 percent on Saturday to about 20 percent on Sunday, with the highest chance of rain along the coast. Similar to Saturday, Sunday will see partly cloudy skies with high temperatures around 90 degrees in most areas.

The possibility of rain over the two days of the weekend could mean cumulative totals of a half inch to two inches in some lucky locations.

Next week brings a little warm weather

A series of high pressure will begin in the middle levels of the atmosphere early next week. Does this mean our thermal dome will make its presence known? Not necessarily, but you will likely notice some changes in the forecast by mid-week and beyond.

The week will start off dry with temperatures climbing into the mid-90s by Wednesday with dew points consistently hovering around 70 degrees due to prevailing southeast winds. This will make temperatures “feel like” closer to 98 or 99 degrees during the latter half of next week. Higher dew points by Wednesday will lead to a return of scattered rain. The bottom line, fortunately, is that temperatures will remain below 100 degrees.

When will the first true fall cold front arrive?

The first fall cold front usually arrives in southeast Texas by mid-September. Obviously we are still waiting for the first big push of cold air to arrive. Houston has seen some weak fronts in recent weeks, bringing a drier air mass and cooler mornings. But those periods of mild weather were very fleeting. Is there any sign of our first major long-term cooling?

First, let’s take a look at the official two-week forecast from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. Forecasts for the rest of the month indicate that temperatures will likely remain above average.

But what about weather models? Both US and European forecast models project at least the possibility of a good cold front by the end of the last week of the month. Be careful not to look too far. A word of caution about using model data for more than 10 days: it becomes less accurate the further you go.