In-season tournament odds and picks
What’s very interesting during the early parts of the 2023-24 NBA season is that it’s the first-ever in-season tournament in the NBA. This new tournament raises the stakes with a subset of regular season games throughout November and December and culminates with the “Final Four” in Las Vegas in mid-December.
A new tournament in the season not only increases viewership but also increases interest in betting. The NBA has structured the schedule so that certain nights have all championship games. This allows the NBA to more effectively “own” certain nights of the week with increased interest. Sportsbooks come along with these nights with special promotions to take advantage of regarding betting during these nights.
Furthermore, the “Final Four” in Las Vegas on December 7-9 will give fans another sporting event to generate interest and betting activity.
Here is the complete schedule for the upcoming NBA championship games this season:
| platform | date | games |
|---|---|---|
| Group game | Friday, November 17, 2023 | 11 matches |
| Group game | Tuesday, November 21, 2023 | 5 matches |
| Group game | Friday, November 24, 2023 | 10 matches |
| Group game | Tuesday, November 28, 2023 | 8 matches |
| Knockout Theater | Monday, December 4, 2023 | 2 games |
| Knockout Theater | Tuesday, December 5, 2023 | 2 games |
| Semi-final (Las Vegas) | Thursday, December 7, 2023 | 2 games |
| Final (Las Vegas) | Saturday, December 9, 2023 | One game |
All teams participate during the group play phase. Eight teams qualify for the knockout stage: the winner from each of the six groups (plus the best second-placed team in a group from each conference). The knockout stage, which will be a single elimination. Four winners advance to the semi-finals, which will be held in Las Vegas on December 7, 2023.
NBA betting odds from bet365
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NBA Championship Season Odds: Outright Winner
Here are the odds on winning the first-ever NBA championship of the season, according to bet365, as of November 15, 2023:
| a team | Prospect |
|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | +450 |
| Denver Nuggets | +475 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | +550 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | +650 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | +800 |
| Miami Heat | +1600 |
| Indiana Pacers | +2000 |
| Golden State Warriors | +2500 |
| Phoenix Suns | +2500 |
| Sacramento Kings | +2500 |
| atlanta hawks | +2800 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | +2800 |
Which teams do you see moving prospects? The following are the highlights of the tournament’s round of matches that took place on Tuesday evening:
- The Los Angeles Lakers went from +850 to +650.
- The Minnesota Timberwolves went from +900 to +800.
- The Miami Heat jumped from +3500 to +1600
- The Indiana Pacers went from +3000 to +2000 after eliminating the 76ers.
- Golden State dropped from +1400 to +2500 after losing to Minnesota.
NBA Championship Odds on Season: MVP
The NBA awards the Most Valuable Player (MVP) award for a season specifically as well, similar to how the NBA awards its MVP award in the NBA Finals. Here are the bet365 odds as of November 14, 2023:
| player | Prospect |
|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | +650 |
| Nikola Jokic | +800 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | +1000 |
| Joel Embiid | +1200 |
| Damian Lillard | +1400 |
| Luka Doncic | +1400 |
| Anthony Edwards | +1800 |
| Kevin Durant | +2000 |
| Stephen Curry | +2000 |
| Jaylen Brown | +2200 |
| Devin Booker | +2500 |
| Jimmy Butler | +2500 |
| LeBron James | +2500 |
| Domantas Sabonis | +3000 |
| Anthony Davis | +4000 |
| Therese Maxey | +4000 |
| Therese Halliburton | +4000 |
| Donovan Mitchell | +4000 |
Our picks for the NBA championship of the season
The winner of each group will advance to the knockout stage. One wild card from each conference will also travel (3 sets in each conference). For our picks now, we’ll limit ourselves to teams and players from teams that are yet to be defeated in group play. The biggest variable here is simply exiting multiplayer, so we’ll focus there as of now.
As of 15 November 2023, there are five teams that have won 2-0 in tournament matches. They are the Nuggets, Lakers, Jazz, Heat and Pacers. The Pacers and Heat saw their odds shrink slightly to +2000 and +1600 respectively.
Big wins on Tuesday include the Timberwolves beating Golden State, the Nuggets beating the Clippers, and the Pacers beating the 76ers. All three of these wins have important implications for the outcome here.
Wood wolves
We’ve been in the Timberwolves since the beginning of conference play. Last week we said the following:
The Minnesota Timberwolves have won six straight games, including victories over the Celtics, Warriors and Nuggets. The T-Wolves sit at a 7-2 record and have the best defensive rating in the league.
I currently absolutely love the Timberwolves at +900 to win the championship, and I absolutely love Anthony Edwards winning the MVP at +1800. An up-and-coming team playing excellent basketball with clear numbers. 1 star, I like this a lot for in-season NBA championship odds.
What about the 76ers and Warriors who lost once?
With the recent losses to the 76ers and Warriors, there are some interesting options here. Each conference will feature a wildcard team. The highest-ranked second-place team will be from one of three groups in each conference. The Warriors and 76ers could advance either by continuing to win their series or by advancing through the wild-card status. Their odds are +2500 and +2800 respectively.
With the star power of each of these teams, if they can simply advance, they will certainly have a shot at winning the tournament championship. Once they are out of group play, you only have to win three matches to win the tournament. The quarterfinals, semifinals, and championship game are on December 9. Steph could lead the Warriors to three straight wins. Interesting value here?
We will continue to update in-season tournament odds and picks as more matches are played.
NBA championship odds on bet365
As of November 15, 2023, the odds of winning the NBA Championship for the 2023-24 season are as follows:
| a team | Prospect |
|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | +350 |
| Denver Nuggets | +400 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | +400 |
| Phoenix Suns | +700 |
| Golden State Warriors | +950 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | +1400 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | +1400 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | +1600 |
| Dallas Mavericks | +2200 |
| Cleveland Cavs | +2800 |
| Miami Heat | +4000 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | +4000 |
NBA MVP race
The NBA’s MVP race is always one of the most talked about awards in all of professional sports. Given the dominance of an NBA superstar, the NBA MVP award is certainly an interesting individual award as far as futures betting is concerned.
Here are bet365’s NBA MVP race odds as of November 15, 2023:
| player | Prospect |
|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | +250 |
| Luka Doncic | +425 |
| Jayson Tatum | +800 |
| Joel Embiid | +800 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | +1000 |
| Stephen Curry | +1000 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | +1600 |
| Anthony Edwards | +1800 |
| Devin Booker | +2000 |
| Kevin Durant | +2000 |
| Donovan Mitchell | +2500 |
| Damian Lillard | +3000 |
| LeBron James | +3500 |
| Anthony Davis | +5000 |
| De’Aaron Fox | +5000 |
Who do we like for the MVP award? Barring injury, it’s hard to see a world where Nikola Jokic doesn’t win the award this season. Jokic is putting up amazing numbers, and Denver continues to lead the way in the tournament.
Two potentially interesting ‘flyers’ from the West are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+1600) and Anthony Edwards (+1800). Both players are at the top of their game, but to win the award, their teams will likely need to be at least a top 4 seed in the Western Conference playoffs. It’s possible.
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