January 15, Winter Weather Advisory from today through Tuesday morning
January 15, 2024 Martin Luther King Jr. Day
Monday morning update
We’ll end the snow drought today. This will be the first area-wide snowfall in nearly two years in central Maryland. It will not be a heavy event. It should be noted that a little snow can still cause a big problem. Especially when it’s been a long time since many people have driven their cars in the snow.
Please take this seriously as temperatures will be cold for sticking as the time window will be throughout the afternoon into Tuesday morning.
There may be an impact on travel and possibly schools Tuesday morning. I will not make any promises, as the decisions are local, but there is hope. There is also a chance for another snow event on Friday.
Faith in chips
Winter weather warning
This covers most of our area with light but effective snow.
The general forecast is 1 to 3 inches. There will be some higher spots. I’ve included several SNOW MAP products below.
We’re below freezing and we’re going to be there all day!
A few bands of light snow and flurries have arrived, but not in all areas. It had already fallen over Baltimore earlier with a layer of snow and smooth sidewalks/roads.
This will be displayed in non-winter mode… Snow is likely to continue falling today.
Note: I want to apologize for last night. I looked at the statement about morning snowfall and dismissed it, thinking most of them would be Virga. I was out with some friends and was lazy to report. I just want to hold myself accountable and tell you that I’m all about today.
Morning surface weather
As I shared with you over the weekend, this is not a well-organized storm. Most of the energy comes from fast winds in the jet stream. This is expected to enhance and expand the snow along this same general line during the day and into tonight.
There is a lot of Arctic air throughout the country. I’ve highlighted the temperatures here to show what’s available to stream during the week.
GFS model: Monday morning to Tuesday evening
The snow band will reach its maximum extent tonight, then move away on Tuesday.
Monday night shot
The heaviest snow (if we can call it that) will fall after dark this evening.
NAM model 3 km
This higher resolution shows areas of constant accumulating snow in a narrow band. Light snow will fall to the north in central Pennsylvania. The trailing edge and potential warming will creep across southern Maryland.
NAM 3 Km 8 AM to Midnight (Part 1 of 2)
There may be a lull, then redevelopment and expansion during the afternoon. Timing may be faster than models capture.
I focus on the low angle of the sun. Plan for road issues to become a bigger problem from 2-4pm and then into the evening!
Monday afternoon numbers will remain roughly flat through tonight. Cool enough to stick! The 20s also offer a lighter, thinner slide that can be easier to push but is more slippery.
Climatic data: Baltimore
Today is January 15th
Sunrise at 7:25 am
Sunset at 5:08 p.m
Natural decline in Baltimore: 25 degrees Fahrenheit
Record -2°F in 1964
Normal high in Baltimore: 43 degrees Fahrenheit
Record high of 78 degrees Fahrenheit 1932
NAM 3 Km Model: 1 AM to 3 PM (Part 1 of 2)
Snow will fall steadily overnight and move north. The trailing edge may arrive near Baltimore in the morning with some frost mixed in.
Northern areas may remain light snow during the morning and midday hours.
Temperatures Tuesday morning
Still supports knitting!
How much snow?
My first call compared four National Weather Service models and maps
My first call (from yesterday)
I only hedge my bets under guidance. Models tend to exaggerate snow. I need to consider that some chips may be lost due to virga (sublimation). But with colder snowfall, the percentage may be higher…which is why some locations may be pushing 4 inches.
Typical snow maps
Non-aligned zone 3 km
European Union ECMWF
National Weather Service Maps
Maryland and Virginia
I look forward
The next storm may follow the bias we saw with this event. In a period of 3 to 5 days, energy can be lost.
This looks like a clipper across the Great Lakes that is “not flowing” with a distant coastal storm. But that might be a glitch…
Snapshot: Friday afternoon
Note: The trend is for the upper level energy to accelerate and retreat west/north. So, I think in a day or two, we may see this system come back together and keep snow in the forecast for Friday.
Storm Animation: Thursday afternoon to Saturday afternoon
7 day forecast
Stay cool! The wind chill on Wednesday may be close to zero!
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Latest winter forecast reports:
My winter forecast: more snow
He doesn’t even do thatno Winter updates
Late November: Warm waters shifting westward in the Pacific Ocean could mean more snow in the eastern United States
Computer models support the East Coast storm track
El Niño warning
NOAA’s latest report is confident that a very strong event will occur. Maybe historical! This refers to temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, with implications for the track of the winter storm in the United States.
Winter Weather Folklore: The 20 Best and More Nature’s References to Snow.
NOAA Winter 2024 Forecast
The 2024 winter forecast from farmers’ calendars returns cold and snow
History of Maryland’s snow climate and other winter pages
School STEM Assemblies/Field Trips are back
Click to see more and ‘book’ a visit to your school
Please share your thoughts and best weather photos/videos, or just stay in touch via social media
Paraphrasing my post about dyslexia
I know there are some spelling, grammar mistakes, and other glitches sometimes. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even computer errors that I may have overlooked. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here, you might have missed it: I have dyslexia and discovered it during my sophomore year at Cornell. This did not stop me from obtaining my degree in meteorology and being the first to obtain an AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area. One of my teachers told me that I had come this far without knowing it and to not let it be a crutch to move forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes in my proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does it unfairly which makes matters worse. I can also make forecasting errors. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are accurate. “Verbal” things can get sticky. There was no editor who could check my work When I need it And have it ready to send on a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team who helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to correct typos when available. It could be after reading this. I accept this and perhaps it proves that what you read is really from me…it’s part of my appeal.