January 15, Winter Weather Advisory from today through Tuesday morning

January 15, Winter Weather Advisory from today through Tuesday morning

January 15, 2024 Martin Luther King Jr. Day

Monday morning update

We’ll end the snow drought today. This will be the first area-wide snowfall in nearly two years in central Maryland. It will not be a heavy event. It should be noted that a little snow can still cause a big problem. Especially when it’s been a long time since many people have driven their cars in the snow.

Please take this seriously as temperatures will be cold for sticking as the time window will be throughout the afternoon into Tuesday morning.

There may be an impact on travel and possibly schools Tuesday morning. I will not make any promises, as the decisions are local, but there is hope. There is also a chance for another snow event on Friday.

Faith in chips

Winter weather warning

This covers most of our area with light but effective snow.

The general forecast is 1 to 3 inches. There will be some higher spots. I’ve included several SNOW MAP products below.

Temperatures

We’re below freezing and we’re going to be there all day!

Weather temperatures January 15, Monday morning

Radar piece

A few bands of light snow and flurries have arrived, but not in all areas. It had already fallen over Baltimore earlier with a layer of snow and smooth sidewalks/roads.

This will be displayed in non-winter mode… Snow is likely to continue falling today.

Note: I want to apologize for last night. I looked at the statement about morning snowfall and dismissed it, thinking most of them would be Virga. I was out with some friends and was lazy to report. I just want to hold myself accountable and tell you that I’m all about today.

Morning surface weather

As I shared with you over the weekend, this is not a well-organized storm. Most of the energy comes from fast winds in the jet stream. This is expected to enhance and expand the snow along this same general line during the day and into tonight.

There is a lot of Arctic air throughout the country. I’ve highlighted the temperatures here to show what’s available to stream during the week.

January 15 Weather Snow storm Monday morning

Storm animation

GFS model: Monday morning to Tuesday evening

The snow band will reach its maximum extent tonight, then move away on Tuesday.

Weather forecast for snowfall on January 15, Monday

Monday night shot

The heaviest snow (if we can call it that) will fall after dark this evening.

Weather forecast for snow on January 15, Monday night

Closer look

NAM model 3 km

This higher resolution shows areas of constant accumulating snow in a narrow band. Light snow will fall to the north in central Pennsylvania. The trailing edge and potential warming will creep across southern Maryland.

Weather forecast for snow on January 15, Monday night in NAM

Radar simulation:

NAM 3 Km 8 AM to Midnight (Part 1 of 2)

There may be a lull, then redevelopment and expansion during the afternoon. Timing may be faster than models capture.

I focus on the low angle of the sun. Plan for road issues to become a bigger problem from 2-4pm and then into the evening!

January 15 Weather Radar Snow Monday NAM

Temperatures

Monday afternoon numbers will remain roughly flat through tonight. Cool enough to stick! The 20s also offer a lighter, thinner slide that can be easier to push but is more slippery.

Weather temperatures January 15, Monday afternoon

Climatic data: Baltimore

Today is January 15th

Sunrise at 7:25 am

Sunset at 5:08 p.m

Natural decline in Baltimore: 25 degrees Fahrenheit

Record -2°F in 1964

Normal high in Baltimore: 43 degrees Fahrenheit

Record high of 78 degrees Fahrenheit 1932

Tuesday weather

Radar simulation

NAM 3 Km Model: 1 AM to 3 PM (Part 1 of 2)

Snow will fall steadily overnight and move north. The trailing edge may arrive near Baltimore in the morning with some frost mixed in.

Northern areas may remain light snow during the morning and midday hours.

January 15 Weather Radar Snow Tuesday NAM

Temperatures Tuesday morning

Still supports knitting!

Weather temperatures January 15, Tuesday morning

Tuesday evening

Stay cool.

Weather temperatures January 15, Tuesday afternoon

How much snow?

My first call compared four National Weather Service models and maps

My first call (from yesterday)

I only hedge my bets under guidance. Models tend to exaggerate snow. I need to consider that some chips may be lost due to virga (sublimation). But with colder snowfall, the percentage may be higher…which is why some locations may be pushing 4 inches.

Typical snow maps

Non-aligned zone 3 km

January 15 Typical snowy weather NAM 3 km

GFS model

January 15 GFS snow weather model

European Union ECMWF

Snow weather model for January 15 European ECMWF

Canadian gem

January 15 Canadian snow weather model

National Weather Service Maps

Maryland and Virginia

January 15 Snow Weather NWS Maryland Virginia

Central Pennsylvania

January 15 Snow Weather NWS Pennsylvania

I look forward

The next storm may follow the bias we saw with this event. In a period of 3 to 5 days, energy can be lost.

This looks like a clipper across the Great Lakes that is “not flowing” with a distant coastal storm. But that might be a glitch…

Snapshot: Friday afternoon

Note: The trend is for the upper level energy to accelerate and retreat west/north. So, I think in a day or two, we may see this system come back together and keep snow in the forecast for Friday.

January 15 Weather Snow falling Friday afternoon

Storm Animation: Thursday afternoon to Saturday afternoon

January 15 Snowy weather Friday

7 day forecast

Stay cool! The wind chill on Wednesday may be close to zero!

Weather forecast for January 15, 7 days, Monday

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Latest winter forecast reports:

My winter forecast: more snow

Snow forecast for winter 2024

He doesn’t even do thatno Winter updates

Late November: Warm waters shifting westward in the Pacific Ocean could mean more snow in the eastern United States

El Nino Sea Surface Temperatures November 22

Computer models support the East Coast storm track

El Nino CFSv2 winter precipitation model

El Niño warning

NOAA’s latest report is confident that a very strong event will occur. Maybe historical! This refers to temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, with implications for the track of the winter storm in the United States.

El Niño November 2023

Winter Weather Folklore: The 20 Best and More Nature’s References to Snow.

NOAA Winter 2024 Forecast

The 2024 winter forecast from farmers’ calendars returns cold and snow

Explore more

History of Maryland’s snow climate and other winter pages

School STEM Assemblies/Field Trips are back

Click to see more and ‘book’ a visit to your school

Please share your thoughts and best weather photos/videos, or just stay in touch via social media

Paraphrasing my post about dyslexia

I know there are some spelling, grammar mistakes, and other glitches sometimes. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even computer errors that I may have overlooked. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here, you might have missed it: I have dyslexia and discovered it during my sophomore year at Cornell. This did not stop me from obtaining my degree in meteorology and being the first to obtain an AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area. One of my teachers told me that I had come this far without knowing it and to not let it be a crutch to move forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes in my proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does it unfairly which makes matters worse. I can also make forecasting errors. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are accurate. “Verbal” things can get sticky. There was no editor who could check my work When I need it And have it ready to send on a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team who helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to correct typos when available. It could be after reading this. I accept this and perhaps it proves that what you read is really from me…it’s part of my appeal.

#FITF

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