January 18: Winter weather forecasts for snow begin to go out on Friday
January 18, 2024
Updated Thursday morning
Today will be a cool and calm day before the next event. With increasing clouds, it may feel cold and it may even appear to be snowing at times. There may be flurries or snow showers this evening or tonight. I’ll focus on snow falling before sunrise on Friday.
Moderate snowfall will likely peak during the morning and into the early afternoon.
This is likely to impact travel and schools, so pay attention to information from your local area.
Updated winter weather warnings
The National Weather Service finally expanded alerts to include Maryland and Virginia. This follows the logic I was sharing and my expectations as well.
Plan for snow to fall before sunrise, with the greatest impact in metro areas during the morning and early afternoon.
A winter storm warning for the high mountains with 6 to 12 inches of snow possible through Saturday.
My first call for snow
Again, I need to play the conservative side here…but I think this may be almost a repeat of last week…maybe a little lighter snow in central and southern Maryland.
The next full update will be between noon and 1 p.m
See NWS and typical snow maps below.
New update Thursday afternoon
Click to view
Suggestion: The ice may last longer
Morning surface weather
There are not many suggestions for our weather event here on the map…. There is a front in the Great Lakes that will help enhance our cloud cover.. and perhaps flurries later in the mountains and northern regions.
The snow event we expect will develop with upper level impact early Friday.
ECMW F model
Let’s start with this broader view. Here’s a closer look, snapshots and sample maps of snowfall possibilities.
While the surface low will be far to the east off the coast, there may be an intermediate low developing south of I-95 in southeastern Virginia that could briefly enhance snowfall. This will be a reflection of the jet line/upper level winds that can increase the air height and lower the pressure for expanding snow.
Friday afternoon shot
See more local maps below.
If you miss it yourself…
Click here or the map to see: Snow report ending January 16
Climatic data: Baltimore
Today is January 18th
Sunrise at 7:23 AM
Sunset at 5:11 p.m
Natural decline in Baltimore: 25 degrees Fahrenheit
Record -4°F in 1957
Normal high in Baltimore: 43 degrees Fahrenheit
Record high of 68 degrees Fahrenheit 1986, 1990
Radar simulation: 12 a.m. Friday to 12 a.m. Saturday
I see limits of snow in central Maryland and to the north. Farther south will be on the edge and will get some… ending with showers.
The heaviest snow could be across northern Maryland into southern Pennsylvania.
Then snow will continue until Saturday in the high mountains. That combined with the cold temperatures will inflate their total.
Snow will affect the morning commute.
Most of them will be in their 20s, so whatever falls will stick.
4 pm temperatures
The freeze line could reach metro Baltimore.
It ends with snowfall…with the snow remaining constant in the mountains.
Possibility of snowfall
ECMW F model
Canadian GEM model
National Weather Service Maps
Maryland and Virginia
NOAA forecast for next week
We will return to a warmer pattern, but it’s all relative. Right now, I’m seeing rain in the 40s on Wednesday and possibly into the 50s by the end of next week. So, colors can be deceiving.
7 day forecast
After this snow event, the wind and cold will continue throughout the weekend.
A slow moderate trend will take us into the warmer storm track to the west.
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Latest winter forecast reports:
My winter forecast: more snow
He doesn’t even do thatno Winter updates
Late November: Warm waters shifting westward in the Pacific Ocean could mean more snow in the eastern United States
Computer models support the East Coast storm track
El Niño warning
NOAA’s latest report is confident that a very strong event will occur. Maybe historical! This refers to temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, with implications for the track of the winter storm in the United States.
Winter Weather Folklore: The 20 Best and More Nature’s References to Snow.
NOAA Winter 2024 Forecast
The 2024 winter forecast from farmers’ calendars returns cold and snow
History of Maryland’s snow climate and other winter pages
School STEM Assemblies/Field Trips are back
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Paraphrasing my post about dyslexia
I know there are some spelling, grammar mistakes, and other glitches sometimes. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even computer errors that I may have overlooked. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here, you might have missed it: I have dyslexia and discovered it during my sophomore year at Cornell. This did not stop me from obtaining my degree in meteorology and being the first to obtain an AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area. One of my teachers told me that I had come this far without knowing it and to not let it be a crutch to move forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes in my proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does it unfairly which makes matters worse. I can also make forecasting errors. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are accurate. “Verbal” things can get sticky. There was no editor who could check my work When I need it And have it ready to send on a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team who helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to correct typos when available. It could be after reading this. I accept this and perhaps it proves that what you read is really from me…it’s part of my appeal. #FITF