Joe’s Blog: Slow-Moving Storm (MON-11/20) | Fox 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV

It’s very heavy rain and has been with us on and off for about 24 hours now (as of mid-morning) and fortunately (depending on your point of view) it still has about 12 more hours to go. Rainfall amounts so far range from 1/2 to 8/10 in the region. Some less, others more.

In that sense, this is great news. The unfortunate part is that this slow-moving system is packing moisture up and around the I-70 corridor area…and this rain continues at times through the day into the mid-evening hours. So, this isn’t the greatest news for tonight’s football game. Wet conditions are expected backfield during the game. Sometimes the rain may be down to drizzle or fog.

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One sentence forecast: Today is likely to be the worst weather day of the week with more seasonable conditions expected on Wednesday and Thursday.

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Climate prediction:

Today: Cloudy with rain/fog/drizzle during the evening. Temperatures are stable in the low to mid 40s

Tonight: Cloudy and cool with lows in the 30s

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy with some clearing later in the day. Cool with highs in the mid 40s. Also very windy with gusts of 30+ mph

Wednesday: Most beautiful with highs in the 50 degree range

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discussion:

Well, about 10 days ago, I started talking about this storm and how it was going to give us our best chance of rain in weeks. After a dry start to the month…we broke the unmeasurable stretch of days of no moisture yesterday. That ended a stretch of 21 consecutive days without moisture, the second-longest stretch this year. 22 was the longest.

Rain is welcomed by almost everyone, especially by those with agricultural interests.

Totals as of Monday 8am… via CoCoRaHS

Above 2 via Stormwatch

It wasn’t too heavy so it soaked well in the rain. I got one of my winter treats in before the rain hit the area…so that’s good rain for that.

The whole system is spinning and there are other disturbances going on around the whole thing. This, combined with the slow movement of things, means that the rain will take some time to move away from the area.

Sometimes it might stop… or turn into a mist or mist… and other times it might be more annoying.

Just generally a humid day.

This morning’s surface map shows a storm heading toward the Red River in Texas/Oklahoma.

This surface depression will move toward Memphis, and as it does so, it will keep rain out of the area later this evening.

A different setting, during the middle of winter with enough cold air around, this would have been a good rain-to-snow event with at least 4-8 inches of snow around the area.

In the southern United States…this storm could bring some severe weather today including the risk of tornadoes. It’s been a lull in the “second” season of severe weather out there… today could be a bumpy one.

The main tornado risk is narrower…

Once this storm is over…the week as a whole doesn’t look so bad. There will be an issue tomorrow with clouds remaining behind the system, and that will likely create a nice gray sky. It’s also worth noting that gusty winds will blow around the back of the storm tomorrow.

These stronger winds will pump more cold air into the area but since this storm is of Pacific origin, it’s not really connected to the really cold air to the north, so aside from a return to more seasonal conditions this week…temperatures won’t be excessive Cold during the day after stormy weather tomorrow.

This means the weather is good on Wednesday and Thursday, so if you’re traveling, you should be in good shape here on the plains and also across the country as well.

As we head into the weekend, we may see another system come through the Rocky Mountains. There will be some cold air around the area and with the system coming in perhaps later Saturday or next Sunday…we will be watching for the potential for some rain, snow, or both. Model data has fluctuated significantly over the past five days as the window opens from Friday to Sunday for something wintry.

Bands continue to show “something”, perhaps a simple one, there later on Saturday or Sunday. It’s just something to keep an eye on at this point…it could be a big burger but we should have cooler air in the area before this feature.

Finally check it out…a rare tornado in Arizona…in November at least. This was classified as an EF1 tornado…

Wind speeds were estimated at approximately 105 mph, and this occurred near Payson…towards the northeast Phoenix area.