Joe’s Blog: We Really Need Some Rain (Thursday – 9/14) | Fox 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV

It’s a lovely start to the day around these parts with clear weather again locally as clouds move towards the eastern part of the metro. Today will generally be very similar to yesterday with more near perfect weather as what I feel is the best time of year for nice weather conditions around these parts.

I always felt like from about 9/10 or so until 10/15 was as good as we could do weather wise. Often, like today, we have mild afternoons and cool mornings and that seems to describe the weather here most of the time over the past two weeks or so.

The problem is that things can dry out pretty quickly during this time of year too, which is what happens in most parts of the region. The last good rain we had was a month ago, and while we did get some rain on Monday, it wasn’t heavy in most places, and although there is another system expected tomorrow night and Saturday… that too may be non-existent.

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One sentence forecast: Carbon copy today with locally sunshine and near-season temperatures with highs in the lower 80s

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Climate prediction:

Today: Light winds with more sunshine. High near 82 degrees

Tonight: Clear and cool with lows back in the upper 50s

Tomorrow: Clouds will appear with the possibility of some rain later tomorrow evening until Saturday morning. Highs in the 80 degree range

Saturday: Rain in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of a few rain showers in the afternoon, mild with highs near 80 degrees, although if the clouds stick around long enough it could be in the 70s.

Sunday: Great with high temperatures near 80 degrees

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Well, after today, we will be about 1.75 inches below average for the month. It’s definitely dry out there and in a lot of areas, especially on the south side…things are really dry. That’s one reason the south side has been a couple of degrees warmer recently. This baked soil allows temperatures to rise slightly, even in mid-September.

The rain we’ve had over the last month or so has been really poor. Some areas got some good moisture but a lot of it lacks. Below is a rough estimate of our deficit over the past 30 days. Our average precipitation is about 0.13 inches per day…which should look more like about 0.9 inches of rain/week. So the map below isn’t really great.

Rain deficit for 30 days

Doppler estimates have been going like this for the past 30 days. That’s a lot of blue along the I-70 corridor

So obviously we need rain.

There is a cold front coming to the area as the weekend begins. There is also a dip in the incoming jet stream as well. A weak system with an ill-timed cold front comes at a time when there will not be much instability to create convection. So, it’s a double whammy of reasons why we won’t get heavy rain from this next system.

There is a path through which a few hundredths to a third of an inch can occur. A look at the combinations of the two main models is not the best for the totals from this one system.

Let’s start with the euro…

Light green shows 1/10″ or so of rain. Gray less than 1/10″

Now GFS normally wet…

This is not a great look for more than 1/3″

So all we get may be the “dry” rains we’ve had for most of the past few months except for the 4-6 week rainy spell in July through early August.

In this regard… a look at the latest drought monitoring report now reflects the deteriorating situation. First stop on the MO side.

Now the Kansas side…

Sometimes it’s easier to look at how things change from week to week. In this case you can see how things have gotten worse by looking for the areas in yellow.

Yellow lines represent deterioration of one category…thus worsening drought conditions

So, no matter what happens on Saturday…we’ll still need more rain.

There is some hope that perhaps as we head into the last 7-10 days of the month, perhaps we can start to see some changes to more favorable wet conditions as a broader wave or dip is likely to develop in the western US. This could lead to some better chances for disturbances coming toward the area… Also worth noting… Maybe we could see some severe weather chances on the Plains again as the second severe weather season begins. Apparently this wasn’t a thing here a few years ago.

Finally, Hurricane Lee is still around.

While the strongest winds are blowing and will continue to fade over the next two days as Lee encounters the cold ocean waters… the size of the hurricane from one end to the other is expanding.

Lee will likely not be a hurricane when it finally makes landfall in southwestern Canada east of Maine. In many respects, it will resemble a powerful storm but with widespread storm winds… and huge waves hitting coastal areas in the Northeast and New England… a significant amount of coastal erosion and flooding is likely. The Cape Cod area is vulnerable to gusty winds that accumulate water from north to south in the Gulf around the system’s circulation hundreds of miles away.

The waves, though, crashing into the shore will be the biggest problem for those coastal areas. Look at how the EUR depicts potential extreme wave heights.

Friday evening. Those waves over 15 feet high are crashing into eastern Long Island
Those 40-50+ foot waves are crashing into Maine!

That would be a cool thing to see. Wind speeds along the Maine coast may exceed 60 mph.

It was a very wet summer there to begin with…so the risk of power outages and trees falling is very high to begin with, and obviously that’s not going to help.

More on that tomorrow.

Featured image comes from @KansasHoops


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