Kansas City weather: Thanksgiving week forecast

Temperatures this month during the first 12 days are about 4 degrees above average in Kansas City. It was a great day yesterday, and this week will see above average temperatures all week.

The pattern has been dry since almost Halloween, and it won’t change this week. There are increasing indications that rain could arrive sometime later next weekend.

This will be a sign of some bigger changes that are coming…one of these changes means rain…and another means some cold air that could be a problem in the last week of November.

We could have some wintry weather around these parts before the end of the month.

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One sentence forecast: Sunny and pleasant for the next three days with high temperatures in the upper 60s to 70s.

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Climate prediction:

Today: Sunny and mild with highs in the upper 60s

Tonight: Mild and cool with temperatures reaching 40 degrees

Tomorrow: about the same

Wednesday: High near 70 degrees

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discussion:

It’s been tough blog writing over the last couple of weeks, so nothing notable has happened around the area from a weather standpoint. It has been dry and mild overall and that won’t really change this week.

However, writing the blog will get much easier in about a week or so as more significant weather sets in on the plains… and as we head towards the end of November… or at least the last 10 days… things will likely be ok To be “different”.

Last week I showed you a storm complex in Alaska. This group of storms produced nearly 30 inches of snow in Anchorage last week over the course of a few days. This was a record-breaking hit for them, and there’s more on the way over the next week or so.

I’ve shown that storm(s) because even though it will go through all kinds of transitions and developments… it will probably have a good chance of changing the overall dry pattern locally in about 8-10 days… and now that will come in 6-8 days . Things are coming together at the end of the beautiful November we have enjoyed so far this month.

This complex of storms has merged into this…off the coast of the western United States.

This thing is in no hurry to move along… it’s isolated from the main jet streams to the north that could move it faster.

So there are actually 3 things I’m watching this week. 1 is that system above… 2 is another fast-moving wave that will surround the northern US but is pulling a cold front through the region for Friday into the weekend and 3 is a game-changing wave that will likely create an entirely new weather system for the last 7-10 Days of the month. I’ve labeled them for you on the map below.

It shows the pattern at about 18,000 feet, about halfway up the atmosphere. We can look for different dips and ridges more easily at this level, and what happens there has something to do with what would happen at the surface.

The map below is Thursday evening of this week.

Note that the previously mentioned Alaska storm…#1 is still orbiting off the coast of California. That will come inland to California on Saturday and then reach the Rockies on Sunday morning and then come into the Plains on Monday.

It’s also possible that there will be a portion of Storm No. 3 that will be over the weekend in Alaska that will be involved as Storm No. 3 breaks up into parts. A piece will sink into the Plains by early next week and merge with Storm 1 and create a larger storm closer to our area.

This has ramifications for us as it will likely result in rain. It looks like Sunday may have the first chance for widespread rain, and depending on how the next part of Storm No. 3 in the Plains on Monday continues to produce rain in or near the area early next week, that clearly has implications for Monday night. And the big game is here in Kansas City.

Storm #2… The storm in the map above labeled #2 will be a fast-moving wave that will pull a cold front through the area. There won’t be a lot of cold air with this, perhaps a return to highs near or even slightly below average (low 50s is the average this weekend).

Then there’s Storm No. 3… which by the end of the week will reach Alaska. This will also undergo developments but there are some indications that depending on how these future pieces come together and where they go… that the weather here could get significantly colder next week at some point.

As with many of these cold-season changes, there is little typical agreement. The Euro appears to be off the rails towards the end of its run while the government’s finance statistics appear to be not a major issue on day 10.

As a matter of fact, let me show you the massive differences… These are the side-by-side runs for next Wednesday before Thanksgiving. Euro on the left and GFS on the right.

They’re different…so different. The Euro saw this big drop in the plain, and this should help deliver the arctic cold to the region in the middle of next week. Notice on EURO the large ridge also in Alaska and also Greenland. 2 hills like that above the plains system is a recipe for some bitter cold air on the plains.

On the right side we have the GFS which is basically a burger nothing to get too much weather for the holiday. It’s actually similar with many features over the weekend but the GFS actually eases into the West Coast system now (#1) since the start of the blog. Regardless, both models still bring rain at some point Sunday…and those chances continue into next Monday.

The real changes in terms of how this all unfolds is what happens next…before Thanksgiving. Since the GFS is so “premium” as far as things go… it doesn’t deliver arctic air to the region because the flow is very flat and more west to east in the plains. On the other hand, the Euro is very cold. You can see the differences. Again next Wednesday at 6pm…EUR on the left…GFS on the right.

The difference between night and day. The map above shows temperature anomalies at an elevation of about 5,000 feet. If it’s cold there…you can bet it’s really cold here and vice versa (most of the time)

So which model is the most correct? Probably no one really. Overall, the Euro is alone in what it is doing, while the government finance statistics get some support from various other data. It is certainly something to pay attention to as well, but the Euro to me at this point is just a very likely solution.

The EURO ensembles also differ from the significant drop in jet stream cast by the operational model in the plains region. However, even though they are both trying to shape the potential Alaska Range… and if that happens… cooler solutions may be out there.

I think we’ll see cooler air sometime next week, but how cold it will be is still uncertain.

Like I said, there should be a lot to write about later this week and next week.

Featured image comes from Jane Dupree Ambrose

Atmosphere