Kauai weather forecast for November 17, 2023: Kauai now

West Kauai

today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning. Highs are about 82 near shore to about 70 above 3,000 feet. Winds are easterly, reaching speeds of 15 knots per hour. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows are around 68 near shore to around 57 above 3,000 feet. East winds will reach 15 mph, becoming about 10 mph after midnight.

Saturday: The weather will be mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs are about 83 near shore to about 71 above 3,000 feet. Winds are east at 15 mph and will shift to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

South Kauai

today: breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. High around 81. Northeast wind 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.

Tonight: partly cloudy. Low 64 to 69. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph decreasing to 10 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. High around 82. Light winds become south about 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Kauai Mountains

today: The weather will be cloudy in most areas with multiple rain showers in the morning, then sunny in most areas with scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 77 in valleys to about 64 above 4,000 feet. Winds are easterly, reaching speeds of 15 knots per hour, and reaching 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. The chance of rain is 70 percent.

Tonight: partly cloudy. Lows range from 57 to 62 in the valleys to about 51 above 4,000 feet. Winds are easterly, reaching speeds of 15 knots per hour.

Saturday: The weather will be mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered rain in the afternoon. Highs 70 to 78 in the valleys to about 65 above 4,000 feet. Winds are southerly, reaching speeds of 15 knots per hour. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

North Kauai

today: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.

Tonight: partly cloudy. Low temperatures range between 60 and 69. Winds are southeasterly, reaching speeds of up to 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Maximum temperatures range between 75 and 82. Winds will be southerly, reaching speeds of up to 10 mph, turning to the southwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

East Kauai

today: The weather will be cloudy in most areas with scattered rain in the morning, then sunny in most areas with scattered rain in the afternoon. High 74 to 81. East wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain is 50 percent.

Tonight: partly cloudy. Low temperatures range from 58 to 70. Winds are northeasterly, reaching speeds of 15 miles per hour.

Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. High 75 to 82. South wind gusts to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

summary

Trade winds will remain at moderate to locally breezy levels today, then calm tonight as the weak high settles south and closer to the islands. After rain begins to fall in leeward areas early this morning, somewhat dry conditions will develop across the state and prevail through Saturday, with minimal chances of rain. Winds will shift south over the weekend as the front approaches from the west. The front will bring some rainy weather as it heads down the island chain Sunday night and Sunday, with winds shifting to the north and northeast in its wake. The front appears to stop near Maui County on Monday, then dissipates Monday night. Weak hills upstate will keep light to moderate trade and typical downwind and mocha showers in place Tuesday into Thursday.

discussion

Currently at the surface, it is at 1,023 mb and is centered 575 miles north of Honolulu, bringing moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite images show mostly cloudy conditions in most leeward areas and partly cloudy conditions in most leeward areas. Radar images show scattered showers moving upwind of the slopes and coastlines, with a few showers falling in leeward communities at times. The main focus in the short term is on trade wind trends and precipitation chances.
High pressure will weaken as it settles south and closer to the state today, with trading generally remaining at moderate to breezy levels locally. The approaching front will ease trading tonight into early Saturday, with south and southwesterly winds shifting Saturday afternoon into Sunday at moderate levels. The front will move toward the southeast down the island chain from Sunday into Monday, with moderate to breezy northerly to northeasterly winds developing beyond the frontal passage. The front should dissipate by Tuesday, with mild trading retreating to a light to moderate range on Wednesday and Thursday with some weak lows developing near the islands.
As for the rest of the weather details, after rain begins to fall in windward areas early this morning, we should see things dry quickly in the late morning and early afternoon. Somewhat dry weather will then prevail tonight and Saturday with limited shower activity statewide. Increasing south-southwest flow will bring some rain to leeward areas Saturday night and Sunday, with a band of moisture associated with the front bringing some rainy weather as it passes through the islands, with the focus of the shower shifting back to leeward areas after it passes. . The model’s latest guidance disagrees on how far this front will reach before stalling, with GFS similar to previous runs showing the front reaching the eastern islands. On the other hand, the ECMWF shows the front parked on the western edge of the state, a change from 24 hours ago when it was in good agreement with the GFS. For now, we’ll keep the forecast unchanged, as the front appears hanging around Maui County early next week, which is a decent compromise between the two typical solutions. It looks like the remaining band of moisture from the dissipating front may engage in trade by Tuesday, bringing a more typical trade wind pattern mainly characterized by windward and mocha showers that should continue into Thursday.

airline

Moderate to local weather fluctuations will continue this morning, with scattered rain falling on the coasts and slopes overlooking the wind. Some spills may lead to isolated showers along leeward locations. Periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility are likely to accompany these showers, especially along the north through the eastern parts of the islands. Expect a decrease in shower activity by the afternoon as drier air filters in from the north.
AIRMET SIERRA A broad mountain blackout above 2,500 feet is in effect to the north across the eastern portions of the Big Island due to clouds and showers.

Navy

Fresh to locally strong trade winds will continue to blow across the Hawaiian area today. A cold front approaching the islands from the northwest will break through the ridge north of the state as wind speeds diminish and shift from a southeasterly to southerly direction tonight into Saturday with land and sea breezes developing along nearshore coastal waters. The cold front will move through the island chain late Sunday into early next week bringing several showers as wind directions shift from the north behind the frontal boundary. Advisory conditions for small craft are expected tonight across the windier waters around Maui and the Big Island.
Waves along east-facing beaches will remain high and rough at High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels today. With trade winds weakening over the next few days, northeasterly swell is expected to ease with wave heights falling below HSA levels by tonight. A rapid downtrend will develop this weekend as winds shift from the south.
Sunday night into early next week, the storm’s low altitude about 1,000 nautical miles to the north will generate a large meso-range swell from the northwest (340-350 degrees). Waves are expected to be at advisory levels at a minimum, but swells from these nearby northern sources typically come in much larger than expected, which could lead to swells well above advisory levels during the peak of swell energy forecast to arrive on Monday. This bulging energy will continue into Wednesday from a more northerly direction. In the long-range forecast, there is a larger swell to the northwest late next week with wave heights likely to exceed warning levels along north-facing beaches.
An unseasonable southerly swell will build during the day, peak this weekend, then decline early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advice

High Surf Advisory until 6pm GMT this evening for Olomana, Maui Windward West, Kauai East, South Kauai, East Honolulu, Kolau Windward, Molokai Windward, Molokai Southeast, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, Big Island Southeast, Big Island East, Big Island North.
Small Boat Advisory until 6am GMT Saturday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters and Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data provided by NOAA.gov