Meteorological Authority: Strong to severe rain is possible tonight

From James Spahn and the ABC 33/40 Weather Blog:

ACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD: We have a few spotty showers on the radar early this morning across Alabama; The air is cool and stable with temperatures reaching the 40s and 50s at dawn. Skies will be mostly cloudy today with temperatures rising to 70 degrees or higher in many locations this afternoon. Tonight An organized band of showers and thunderstorms will roll into the state tonight ahead of a dynamic storm system.

It’s a fairly typical setup for November; Very good dynamics, but poor thermodynamics. Surface instability will reduce the overall threat, but the potential for strong and possibly severe thunderstorms remains.

The SPC has designated a “slight risk” (Level 2/5) for areas south and west of the line from Vernon to Northport to Montgomery to Greenville and Andalusia. Much of the rest of the state, with the exception of northeastern counties, is at “marginal risk” (Level 1/5).

Below are the key messages of this event

*The main threat will come from strong thunderstorm winds, but an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The highest tornado risk is in the “minor risk” area across portions of western and southern Alabama.

* A window of strong to severe thunderstorms will begin across far western Alabama around 10:00 p.m., with the threat moving eastward overnight and into tomorrow morning. Storms should move out of the southeast corner of the state by early afternoon.

*Graduating winds (not associated with thunderstorms) could reach 40 mph in some areas tonight; A wind warning is in effect for the northern half of Alabama.

*On the positive side, beneficial rain is likely, with 1-2 inches expected statewide.

With severe weather events continuing to occur in Alabama, this does not pose a “major” threat, but you always need to be prepared and have a plan. Since most storms in the northern two-thirds of the state will come in during the middle of the night, make sure you have a good way to hear severe weather warnings in case they’re needed. The baseline is the NOAA Weather Radio, every home and business needs one! Make sure emergency alerts are enabled on your phone. Know the safe place in your home, and keep helmets there for everyone in the family. If you live in a mobile home, know the location of the nearest shelter and how to get there quickly.

TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: We may see some peeks of sun tomorrow, but today will be mostly cloudy with highs in the 60s. As previously mentioned, storms will move in from the southeast corner of the state by early afternoon. Then, a deep upper low will swing across northern Alabama on Wednesday, and it will be a mostly cloudy and cool day with highs between 48-54 degrees in the northern half of the state, with upper 50s and lower 60s in southern counties. Some sprinkles are likely to appear under the upper depression over the northern third of the state.

Thanksgiving: Thanksgiving Day/Thursday looks cool and dry with partly sunny skies. We start the day in the upper 30s and low 40s, and highs will be in the 50s for most of the state. Clouds will increase Thursday night with a possible weak surface depression forming in the northern Gulf of Mexico, but models have backed off this feature slightly in recent rounds. Some scattered light rain cannot be ruled out on Thursday night.

Friday and Weekend: Any light rain from the Bay Area will end early Friday; The rest of the day and weekend will remain cool and dry with highs generally in the 50s, along with lows in the 30s and 40s.

Iron Bowl Forecast: We expect cool, dry weather for the biggest football game of the year on Saturday (Alabama at Auburn; kickoff at 2:30 p.m. CT). Skies will be partly sunny with highs near the 60s, dropping into the 50s by the fourth quarter.

Tropics: The NHC is monitoring two disturbances, one in the Caribbean and one in the mid-Atlantic, but both have a low chance of developing at this point. Hurricane season ends at the end of the month.