Monday Night Football Forecast Concerns
Another great day in the area with some high clouds in the area this afternoon. Overall, it’s been great for the last 10 days or so in the area.
After starting the month with a record low temperature (18 degrees) We were living great. The average high is around 64 degrees, considering that during mid-November it should be closer to 55 degrees…which isn’t bad.
Overall, we are recording a rise of 4.5 degrees above average during the first half of the month, and today we may add a little more to that.
The weather was also very dry. So far only a trace of precipitation has been officially reported in Kansas City, which is somewhat rare for the first part of November. After nothing in the rain gauge today, this will be the 11th driest start to the month.
This will change… Temperature wise and rain wise.
One sentence predictions: More great weather today and tomorrow with more wind and clouds tomorrow
today: Mostly sunny and warm with highs near 70 degrees
Tonight: Mild and pleasant with lows in the mid 40s
tomorrow: Windy and warm with high clouds. Highs are close to 70 degrees
Friday: Mostly sunny and cool with temperatures approaching 50 degrees
Well, as I mentioned at the beginning of the blog, it’s light. Not close to record high temperatures, but still good overall for November. It’s the 32nd warmest start to November
After that rainy period leading up to Halloween…it’s dry again.
The driest November since 2007 begins, with only a trace of moisture
There’s a slight chance of some drizzle or light showers tomorrow night, but if we wait until Sunday for the moisture to arrive, a few more traces of the above years will fall.
This is by far the 43rd driest year to date with 32.78 inches of moisture.
So what would change these two parameters? this:
See that vortex on the California coast? That will spoil us later Sunday into Monday, and perhaps part of Tuesday as well. It’s an upper-level storm broken up into a few parts, but it will strengthen over the next 24 hours when it reaches California on Saturday morning.
This means the first good rain in a while…
It has been a well below average wildfire year thanks to the humidity. Although, take a look at this from Cal Fire.
However, even though the five-year average is close to 1.6 million acres burned, this year represents about 20% of that total!
This rain will be helpful in containing some of the fires burning now although there are not many of them.
So, good news for them.
Meanwhile, this system will weaken over the weekend as it comes across the western United States and will likely unleash a groundbreaking wave that will impact our region on Sunday with increasing clouds and humid conditions during the day.
As a result, some rain is likely from Sunday into Sunday evening, although it does not look heavy at this point.
So we’ll be looking at two waves there later Sunday: First, the lead wave heading into Nebraska, the other wave is the lead wave moving south of the region, and then there’s a third wave in the Rockies…which is a problem wave for Monday.
Here is the forecast map for about 18,000 feet; The 500 mbar level demonstrates these three features. The upper low in the Northeast represents a wave in the southern Plains, and the X indicates another strong wave crossing the Rocky Mountains and about to empty into the Plains
Look at this unique model being photographed on Monday afternoon. Do you see what I see?
So now we have three things, and they’re going to basically revolve around each other in a circular loop, and unfortunately it looks like the MO might be in the middle.
Do you see how things are coming together before it kicks off later on Tuesday? The problem is that this will result in a lot of moisture being “trapped” in the area from wave number one Sunday afternoon/evening.
That moisture will tend to swirl around us. Wave #2 in the southern Plains will allow drizzle and fog to fall Monday, and wave #3 in the Rockies will help create a wraparound area of light rain and keep a moisture-laden atmosphere at the top of the region likely to a decent level. Part of Tuesday.
Hence my concerns for Monday and Monday night. The rain may not be heavy, but it will be enough to make things uncomfortable to stay outside for any length of time on Monday, and we all know what happens. Monday night in Kansas City!
That’s one aspect of Monday…the next aspect is temperatures, which should be in the 45-50 degree range during the day and will likely drop a bit after that as a little cooler air spreads on the back side of the series of rotating storms throughout the region.
So the 40s for the game seems reasonable… maybe low to mid 40s.
What’s also interesting is that between 4 and 5,000 feet, it should be snowing. Although it appears that below this level it will be above freezing, so the flakes will melt before they reach the ground.
A note about this setting. Model data will never handle the interaction between all these waves well, especially the rotation around another part of the object. So timing rain for Monday will be a work in progress.
The setting is there for a generally rainy/foggy/humid day.
There’s no real cold air connection behind all of this, so Wednesday, a big travel day, looks to be pretty perfect for the region as a whole with temperatures in the 50s with a possibility of 60 degrees.
Thanksgiving seems so…very seasonal.
Maybe it will be colder then until next weekend… Need to watch next weekend and into the last few days of November for something possible.
Featured image comes from Chris Scudero. Sent by his mother, Jamie.