I talked a lot about getting some u(u) back in the NBA earlier this week and paid for them on Friday. Honestly, I expect it and I deserve it. Every time I mention a winning streak it gets snapped. It’s not all bad though.
The losers on Friday held their lead in the fourth quarter and the Dallas Mavericks were A.J a lock. Plus, losing Friday helps me block out the grumpy Saturday and do my best work when I’m grumpy. With that in mind, I’m willing to spend the money…
NBA Saturday “locks”
Miami Heat (+7.5) Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m
I had this whole talk about the Heat-Hawks going under by 229 points total that I had to delete. First, the Heat will be without a combo guard Tyler Herro. Now, Miami will be without both a Hero and an All-Star Jimmy Butler.
After the Heat’s injury news broke, Miami’s spread went from +4 to +7.5 and the total dropped from 229 to 227.5. After further review, Temperature +7.5 (-110) Seems like the best play. Since everyone is betting on Atlanta, you may be able to get a better number that is closer to the tip, so wait.
However, Miami will trade Herro and Butler for three-point bullets, while Atlanta has a terrible three-point defense. Hit Saint-Germain Duncan Robinson He will take Herro’s place as the starter at 5 and SF Haywood Highsmith He replaces Butler.
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Robinson has been one of the best three-point shooters in the NBA in recent seasons. Highsmith has the second highest 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) in Miami. Heat is beyond PG Kyle Lowry Which also increases his role without Hero or Butler playing.
Furthermore, Atlanta’s defense ranks 23rd in the “wide open” 3PAr category. “Wide open” is when the three-point shooter has at least six feet of distance from the nearest defender. That’s a big reason why the Hawks rank 20th in three-point shooting defense.
Also, all the money comes from the Hawks and that’s where Heat coach Erik Spoelstra coaches his guys. Miami advanced to the 2023 NBA East Finals without Herro for most of the playoffs.
Finally, the Heat have been implementing the BS “load/injury management” system for years now, and they still find ways to win games. Coach Spo He is the NBA equivalent of Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. They have magical powers or something.
My predictions: Falcons 113, Heat 110
- Bet 1.1u on Miami Heat +7.5 (-110).
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors (-4), 8:30 p.m. ET
Cleveland won the first meeting between the Cavaliers and Warriors this season, 115-104, on Sunday. Meaning this rematch is close enough to apply winding Disability angle. It’s hard to beat the same team twice a week.
Additionally, the Warriors have one of the biggest teams on the court in basketball. Since last year, Golden State is 12-2 overall and 10-3-1 against a home favorite of -5 or less. This is only the Warriors’ third home game this season.
Despite having two big scorers in the starting lineup, Cleveland struggles to get defensive rebounds. Golden State ranks sixth in offensive rebounding and leads the NBA in second-chance points per game. The Cavaliers rank 22nd in both second chance points allowed per game and defensive rebounding.
Furthermore, the Cavaliers grabbed 10 more boards than the Warriors in their first meeting. But, Golden State averaged nearly four more rebounds per game at home last season. This suggests the Warriors will do a better job on the glass on Saturday.
Finally, and this is obvious, Golden State is a much better three-point shooting team. The Warriors have a +2.5 differential in 3-pointers per game, while the Cavs have a -0.9 differential in 3-pointers per game. Since role players shoot better at home, I expect so Steph Curry He gets help on Saturday.
My predictions: Warriors 116, Cavaliers 107
- Bet 1.1u on Golden State Warriors -4 (-110).
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