November 19 The weather is colder before heavy rain on Tuesday
November 19, 2023
Sunday morning update
Yesterday the temperature reached 60°F in the BWI area of Baltimore as we return to normal mid-November weather. The cold trend will continue for a few days, then a welcome storm will arrive on Tuesday. The rain may be heavy, which is necessary, but it may also impact travel plans before Thanksgiving.
Thanksgiving Storm Week
We are narrowing down the forecast for this storm and an original resolution appears to be the most likely. Rain is expected on Tuesday, with heavy rain overnight and into early Wednesday. Dry and cold weather will likely follow on Thanksgiving.
Morning temperatures
Cold air spreads in… Some areas may see similar temperatures in the afternoon.
Morning surface weather
High pressure has brought us clear skies and seasonal temperatures. A colder air mass will arrive tomorrow, ahead of a developing storm. We will get that on Tuesday with mostly rain Tuesday afternoon. There may be some wintry mix at first…in the mountains. See storm forecast below.
Afternoon temperatures
Drought report
Click to see breakdown by state.
Climatic data: Baltimore
Today is November 19th
Sunrise at 6:54 am
Sunset at 4:50 p.m
Natural decline in Baltimore: 36 degrees Fahrenheit
Record high of 19 degrees Fahrenheit in 2014
Normal high in Baltimore: 56°CF
Record high of 77 degrees Fahrenheit 1928
Winter forecast reports:
He doesn’t even do thatno Winter updates
Computer models support the East Coast storm track
El Niño warning
NOAA’s latest report is confident that a very strong event will occur. Maybe historical! This refers to temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, with implications for the track of the winter storm in the United States.
Winter Weather Folklore: The 20 Best and More Nature’s References to Snow.
NOAA Winter 2024 Forecast
The 2024 winter forecast from farmers’ calendars returns cold and snow
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Temperatures
Monday morning
Monday afternoon
The increasing clouds should dim the sunlight making it feel cooler.
Storm vacation simulation
Tuesday morning to Wednesday evening
After all this GFS paradigm shift, this solution seems the most likely.
A rainy event for most people. If there is mixing at first, it will be in the mountains. Then snow melted and mixed Tuesday night from the Poconos to central New York.
Snapshot on Tuesday afternoon
Rain will develop by midday and expand in the afternoon.
If there is any mix or snow at first, it will be in the high mountains from West Virginia through western Maryland and western Pennsylvania.
Closer look
Tuesday evening
Rain is expected to be moderate to heavy at times.
Tuesday night
Continuous and heavy rain will fall overnight.
Wednesday morning
The rain may still be with us in the morning but it will move away.
Wednesday night
The rain may last longer on the beaches during the afternoon, then end at night.
Possibility of rain
The latest GFS model run (the most consistent) is pushing over 2 inches of rain across most of our region. This would help put an end to our drought.
Thanksgiving Thursday
Despite what the GFS model showed in my previous report, the storm will likely move away and leave us with a cool, dry day.
Morning temperatures
Afternoon temperatures
7 day forecast
I included the possibility of rain continuing until Thanksgiving, but kept the odds at 60%. I won’t promise that yet Our computer instructions have trouble validating themselves.
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History of Maryland’s snow climate and other winter pages
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Paraphrasing my post about dyslexia
I know there are some spelling, grammar mistakes, and other glitches sometimes. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even computer errors that I may have overlooked. I’ve made some general statements over the years, but if you’re new here, you may have missed these: I have dyslexia and discovered it during my second year at Cornell. This did not stop me from obtaining my degree in meteorology and being the first to obtain an AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area. One of my teachers told me that I had come this far without knowing it and to not let it be a crutch to move forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes in my proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does it unfairly which makes matters worse. I can also make forecasting errors. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are accurate. “Verbal” things can get sticky. There was no editor who could check my work When I need it And have it ready to send on a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team who helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to correct typos when available. It could be after reading this. I accept this and perhaps it will prove that what you read is in fact from me… It’s part of my magic.
#FITF
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