On November 12, the weather remains cool and dry with some rain on the horizon
November 12, 2023
Sunday morning update
Yesterday, the temperature in Baltimore reached 61 degrees Fahrenheit, which is close to average. Normal highs have dropped into the 50s and we will drop to cooler than average for most of next week.
There is a widespread drought in our area and I expect the next report will show that the situation is getting worse. This will be due to lack of rain most days of next week.
If we were to look for the next pattern, it would likely be with rain on Friday (again).
Drought Monitor: Baltimore/Washington area
Note: I know reservoirs are low and it’s very dry in Pennsylvania as well.
- Shenandoah Mountains: Extremely intense
- Frederick MD: Drought
- Rest of our region: The abnormal drought situation is expanding.
Morning temperatures
Morning surface weather
High pressure to our north will continue to send light, cool winds, keeping temperatures below average.
The stalled border to our south has record heat just across from it in Florida.
A rainy pattern has been established and may continue throughout the week from East Texas through the South into the Carolinas. This looks like a more typical El Niño storm track that we may see develop this winter.
Expected winds: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m
Light airflow from the north will make the day a little cooler.
Afternoon shot: Crows game
Cloud forecast
Mostly sunny to partly cloudy
Afternoon temperatures
He doesn’t even do thatno Winter updates
Computer models support the East Coast storm track
El Niño warning
NOAA’s latest report is confident that a very strong event will occur. Maybe historical! This refers to temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, with an impact on the track of the winter storm in the United States
Climatic data: Baltimore
Today is November 12th
Sunrise at 6:46 AM
Sunset at 4:55 p.m
Natural decline in Baltimore: 37 degrees Fahrenheit
Record high of 18 degrees Fahrenheit in 1957
Normal high in Baltimore: 59F
Record high of 78 degrees Fahrenheit 1879
Winter forecast reports:
Winter Weather Folklore: The 20 Best and More Nature’s References to Snow.
NOAA Winter 2024 Forecast
The 2024 winter forecast from farmers’ calendars returns cold and snow
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Shot 7am
Temperatures Monday morning
hot
Monday afternoon
Still cooler than average.
Storm simulation
From Tuesday to Saturday
This could be a preview of the type of weather patterns we could get during the winter. This is not the exact weather, but check it out:
As we remain dry this week, a persistent storm track will form from East Texas into the Carolinas. A more organized low pressure will form across the Gulf states, then redevelop off the southeastern coast of the United States. This will team up with the northern branch of the jet stream to boost rainfall for us on Friday.
Closer view shots
Friday afternoon
A cold front will move in from the Great Lakes/Midwest region with persistent rain.
Friday night
The best chance for rain in our area will be later Friday and overnight.
Saturday morning
This storm system will be pulled off the coast with low pressure. It will be followed by another cold air mass.
7 day forecast
Long and simple: It remains cold and dry for most of this week. The next chance of rain will be another Friday, then it will dry out and cool down next weekend.
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Paraphrasing my post about dyslexia
I know there are some spelling, grammar mistakes, and other glitches sometimes. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even computer errors that I may have overlooked. I’ve made some general statements over the years, but if you’re new here, you may have missed these: I have dyslexia and discovered it during my second year at Cornell. This did not stop me from obtaining my degree in meteorology and being the first to obtain an AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area. One of my teachers told me that I had come this far without knowing it and to not let it be a crutch to move forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes in my proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does it unfairly which makes matters worse. I can also make forecasting errors. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are accurate. “Verbal” things can get sticky. There was no editor who could check my work When I need it And have it ready to send on a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team who helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to correct typos when available. It could be after reading this. I accept this and perhaps it will prove that what you read is in fact from me… It’s part of my magic.
#FITF
