Possibility of bad weather on Saturday

June is usually the most active month for severe weather in Nebraska and Iowa, but this year June was quite quiet. In fact, with the exception of far western Nebraska, June is expected to be one of the quietest months on record to date.

However, this may change over the next 24 to 36 hours as Nebraska and Iowa expect two rounds of thunderstorms. Below let’s outline the path of storms, timing of storms, and potential threats.

Some storms are possible this evening, especially south and west of Omaha, but are expected to remain below severe boundaries. Attention will focus to the west across western Nebraska as storms begin to develop in the evening. These storms will likely be severe with large hail, damaging winds and the potential for an isolated tornado.

KMTV

The area circled in white is where storms are expected to form and then move eastward overnight. There is a greater risk of severe weather in the west, where the risk is enhanced (3/5). The storms should slowly weaken as they approach from the east-northeast.

During Friday night into Saturday morning, those storms should consolidate into a line of storms as they move eastward across northern Nebraska into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. The Storm Prediction Center has assigned a “slight risk,” or level 2 out of 5 risks, for northeastern Nebraska. The rest of the area is at a level 1/5 risk for a strong storm with this group of storms. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the main risk for these storms.

Risk Day SPC 1.png

KMTV

Severe weather forecast for Friday night, starting at three o’clock this afternoon

The line of storms will move into northeastern Nebraska by 4 a.m., reach Omaha by 6-7 a.m., and head into western Iowa by 8 a.m. As of now, it looks like the line will stay along and north of I-80 for the most part, but anyone in our viewing area can see those storms. It will depend on where exactly the storms develop this evening to the west. So don’t be surprised if you hear some thunder on Saturday morning.

DMA Future Precipitation and Temps.png

KMTV

Future broadcast at 6:30 a.m. Saturday. A broken line of storms will move along/north of I-80. Some strong storms can produce winds as strong as 60 mph. (Note: This may not be exactly where the storms will be or what they will look like, just to give a general idea of ​​what to expect tomorrow morning)

If these storms occur, they will bring the potential for some beneficial rain to our area, especially in northeastern Nebraska. Rainfall totals could reach 1/2 inch in areas, with any heavy rain cores potentially bringing more rain.

Once those storms move out of our area, we play a waiting game for the second round of storms. The morning round will be crucial for the development of the afternoon round of storms. If these morning storms and clouds persist throughout most of the morning, we can consider the afternoon round of storms dead. If these morning storms move quickly and we see sunlight, the risk of strong storms exists.

The Storm Prediction Center assigned western Iowa a “slight risk” (2/5) for severe storms, with Omaha and surrounding areas at a 1/5 risk level.

Risk Day SPC 2.png

KMTV

Severe weather conditions Saturday afternoon. Anyone in danger zones should pay attention to the weather tomorrow.

The further east you go, the more serious the threat becomes. Those with interests in central Iowa, including Des Moines, should pay attention because this is where the highest risk for storms is.

DMA Future Precipitation and Temps2.png

KMTV

Futurecast is valid at 6pm on Saturday. For most of the viewing area, Saturday afternoon will be dry. However, some scattered storms are possible in the afternoon. Highest chance the farther east you go, with highest storm chances in the Atlantic to Bedford Iowa areas.

For Omaha, the chances of seeing afternoon storms are low, but not non-existent. So, if you’re heading downtown or have any other plans, you’ll need to keep an eye on the sky.

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