Possibility of severe storms with a cold front
summary
The frontal system will develop over the southern Plains late Sunday and move east toward the lower Mississippi Valley through Monday. This front will bring rain and storms across the region as the surface low moves northeast across Texarkana on a track toward the Great Lakes. It will be possible to isolate isolated severe storms within the warm sector of the frontal system. The warm sector is the areas preceding the cold front, but south of the warm front where warm, moist air flows in from the Gulf of Mexico.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Enhance risks (3/5) Over parts of northern Louisiana, southwestern Mississippi and A Slight risk (2/5) For severe weather over areas of eastern Texas, southern Arkansas, and most of Louisiana and Mississippi.
Threats: It would be possible to combine separate storm cells with a cluster line of storms ahead of the storm front. This would support all the threats with the greatest risks of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Within the enhanced danger area, a few strong tornadoes (EF 2+) will be possible.
The major threat of hailstones appears to be diminishing towards the eastern regions, but some hailstones cannot be ruled out. The risk of flooding is low, but short-term heavy rain is possible which could lead to localized street flooding (particularly in areas of poor drainage).
timing: Recent model directives have tended towards the previous solutions. Scattered rain is expected late Sunday night as well as Monday afternoon. The main line of showers and storms that could carry a severe threat appears to arrive Monday evening into the early hours of Tuesday morning.
how to prepare
Make sure you have multiple ways to receive weather alerts and keep up with updated forecasts during the day. Make sure your phone is unmuted, charged, and turned on to receive WEA notifications.
Have a plan and a safe place to go if a warning is issued for your location. Find a low-level interior room away from windows. Secure outdoor furniture and decor in advance.
You can always check out the interactive radar here.
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Meteorologist Ashley Renee – Twitter | Facebook | e-mail
