Restrictions on soybean cultivation lifted in Brazil with mostly good weather

In general, these states wait for good soil moisture before planting to ensure that the soybean crop does not dry out due to heat after a long dry season. This is especially true of Mato Grosso. But this state has already seen more than 30 mm (1.2 inches) of rain over the past three weeks, and soil moisture was above normal before the start of the rainy season, about 10 days away. The US GFS model suggests rain will start on time late next week. The European pattern is drier during that time but will continue to receive scattered showers through this weekend to keep the soil adequately moist. Reports have not yet been released in the state, but planting may start early, especially those that can be irrigated.

Heavy rains fell on the other three states during the winter and early this spring. These states still have some safrainha corn to pull from the fields before they can start planting soybeans, but that is starting to end and planting has already begun in Parana although there is some wet soil. The other two states are likely to start farming in earnest as well.

As for other important states in Brazil, Santa Catarina is a small state with limited production, but the soil is very moist and ready for seed germination. The regions of Goiás and Minas Gerais have already seen good rainfall over the past few weeks to encourage on-time planting, especially if the GFS is right to start the rainy season rains on time. Bahia wasn’t so lucky, and although it can’t start until October 1st anyway, they may end up having to wait a bit to make sure the rainy season actually starts first.

Rio Grande do Sul typically waits for the harvest of wheat or other small grains before planting soybeans in a double-crop rotation. The October 1 restriction is usually early as the wheat is supposed to mature later this month. Their problem in that case, as mentioned in last week’s blog here, https://www.dtnpf.com/…, is that the rains were very heavy and caused flooding problems and potentially some damage to the wheat crops. They will need a period of drier weather to bring out the wheat before they can start planting soybeans. But with a long growing season ahead and El Niño bringing higher than normal rainfall through at least January and possibly longer, even a delay in soybean planting in this region would not be overly concerning. The same is true for long-season corn, which also finds delays in planting.

Overall, most areas of Brazil are doing well with restrictions lifted. Weather patterns will largely favor a good soybean crop coming out of Brazil, and the outlook for another year of record production looks very likely.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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