Lows this morning were cool with areas of dense fog at 42-48.
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Some locations in southern Indiana and Illinois were within 3 degrees of the record low, the record low occurring in northeastern Minnesota. Hibbing dropped to 26. Even northern Iowa dropped into the 30s with Forest City at 37 and 36 northwest of Mason City.
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Record heat in Western Europe has shrunk and shifted eastward. Record high temperatures were recorded over the past 24 hours from Bulgaria and Hungary to Poland, Belarus and Estonia.
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Highs today reached xx-xx with some intermittent/scattered rain/scattered showers.
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Some short heavy rains produced what amounted to “rainfall”.
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So first………….
The first ten days of these forecasts and general forecasts………..
Let’s dig……
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Areas of dense fog tonight with a temperature of 40-46 will turn to 70-76 Thursday with sun and cumulus clouds (with northeast winds).
With some areas dense fog and clouds Friday morning with 42-48, Cumulus/sun and 73-78 (east to southeast).
On Saturday, with increasing clouds, temperatures are expected to range between 76 and 81 with southwesterly winds.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Lee will likely make landfall in far eastern Maine or New Brunswick on Saturday late at night as a Category 1 or 2 storm. However, it will have a cat. Type 4 storm surges and tropical storm force may extend all the way into eastern Long Island and Vermont. Hurricane force will reach the coast of Rhode Island and Massachusetts into Maine, as well as high elevations from New Hampshire to northeastern Vermont.
Up to 6 inches of rain is possible over Maine.
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A little or scattered rain is likely Saturday night with a low of 59-63.
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With clouds/sun, more rain or some scattered showers are possible Sunday with a high of 73-78.
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We are warming up well next week. After temperatures were below normal Monday at 72-76, we return to 76-80 Tuesday and 80-85 Wednesday with sunshine.
82-86 is possible next Thursday and Friday.
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With the tropical system(s) likely to make landfall in Mexico, massive tropical moisture will rise northward around the perimeter of the upper ridge, into the plains mid to late next week.
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Deep tropical moisture with localized flooding from Texas to Manitoba will also have severe risks. This is where the strong flow moves high as the upper basin emerges from the Rockies, into the plains. Meanwhile, a strong tropical flow with dew points in the 70s will flow from the south to the southeast at the surface.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Margot could pass near Newfoundland around September 22 after hitting Bermuda around September 20.
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We will likely see rain and storms from September 23-27 with higher than normal temperatures.
The main corridor of parameters indicating slight risk to risk is Minnesota, Wisconsin to Iowa to Missouri, Kansas and Nebraska, but we may end up with a marginal risk scenario for a day or two in the 23-27 time frame (given the parameters seen).
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Anomalies continue with El Nino.
The eastern tropical Pacific continues to warm into a full-fledged strong El Nino.
However, notice how unusually warm the North and Northwest Pacific Ocean is.
In a moderate to strong El Niño, you get cooler waters in the northwest to the North Pacific, where the PDO and ENSO are closely linked. A+ PDO (unusually cold water in the North Pacific Ocean) coincides with El Niño. However, we have a strange case of El Niño with -PDO (North Pacific Warm Water). The only thing that is normal for El Niño any degree north of the equator is warm water off the west coast and Baja and cold water coming off Hawaii toward the northeast.
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Only two years since at least 1900 (in a reconstruction of an SST anomaly) have shown no conjunction at their time of year: 1940 and 1994.
They both ended up named El Nino Modokis with a pairing that followed in late fall. Both were moderate intensity El Nino Modoki.
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