Rainfall varied greatly over the area this Sunday as cold air moved high into the upper/lower basin. We also have some small hail on the east side of Lafayette! This Sunday’s highs ran 68-75.
Winds will prevent more fog Monday morning, but there may be some fog in the lower and lower areas more protected by northerly winds. The best chance for any of this to happen will be in locations that received rainfall.
Lows are expected to range between 47-52, followed by cumulus cloud development and 68-74 on Monday. A few isolated light showers are possible in our north to northeast areas from strengthening cumulus (cold air stuck above). Lake Michigan will help contribute moisture and some instability aloft until the cumulus produces one of these light showers.
Then these clouds will dissipate tomorrow evening, followed by an increase in high and medium clouds, and the winds will move easterly, then southeasterly. Lows are expected to range between 48-55.
This will happen as a warm front approaches.
The warm front will slowly move north through the region on Tuesday.
So, the sky looks to be mostly cloudy with highs ranging from 69-80 NE to SW and around 75 in the greater Lafayette area.
The winds will become easterly to southeasterly-southly, then southwesterly over time, from southwest to northeasterly over the viewing area.
A few isolated to intermittent showers are possible amidst lots of Virgo (drying precipitation on the way down).
Some scattered showers are likely Wednesday morning with a high of 50 to 60 degrees, followed by partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies Wednesday and southwesterly winds (as the warm front will move north).
Highs should reach 82-86.
Tropical moisture floods north into the Plains combined with a strong fall upper trough in the Rocky Mountains will mean several days of heavy rainfall and severe weather in the Plains Wednesday through Sunday.
Parts of Minnesota into North and South Dakota into Missouri and Kansas could see +5 inches of rain.
The core of the upper level system will produce unseasonably cold weather in the Rockies with early snow.
Meanwhile, watch for a strong tropical or subtropical system on the east coast that could cause a big problem with high winds, waves, beach erosion and heavy rain.
Even without being classified as tropical, this storm could be a major problem from Florida to the mid-Atlantic and New England. Much of the Northeast is already waterlogged and 60+ mph wind gusts could occur from the Carolinas to Maine.
We remain very warm and dry with the 80s taking over and areas that did not see +0.50 inches today quickly transition into D1 or moderate dryness.
Any significant rain for us won’t arrive until early next week.
After a very warm trend and the potential for eventual good rain, we see the return of drier weather with cooler conditions.
It feels like some slightly patchy frost in early October, then 80-84 warming (followed by precipitation) and then a freeze and frost in mid-October.
Shows the cold of mid-October best:
After that first freeze, we warm up nicely (followed by precipitation), followed by more freezes in late October, but nothing says hard freeze.
I would keep a close eye on the northernmost Caribbean Sea to the eastern Gulf for additional tropical development. Either system could operate on the East Coast and/or as far as Florida. This applies to mid-October as the pattern is suitable for it. Any system affecting the United States will not come from Cape Verde (West African waves), but will develop on the fringes of the front or continue to develop up and down.