Severe thunderstorm watch until 11 PM on September 8

Updated Friday afternoon

For the second day in a row, we face the risk of storms that could become severe. A stationary frontal boundary is parked over our area and will work with heat and moisture to create storms that could become severe.

This setting is a little later than yesterday. Storms are likely late afternoon into this evening. Maybe some lingering storms overnight too.

Severe Weather Alerts Reminder:

hour For a wide area. This would have a higher probability of severe storms. Not a promise.

warning It is issued for active storms in progress. It will be tracked for about 45 minutes or so through the counties and cities identified in the route.

Severe thunderstorm watch until 11 p.m

There is a possibility of storms forming. Not all of them, but some could produce damaging winds greater than 58 mph, hail larger than an inch in diameter, isolated tornadoes, and/or flash flooding.

I have a list of counties listed by state below the live radar.

Weather setting at 3 p.m

This stationary front will be with us through the weekend, so we may have to stick around and deal with these risks every afternoon and evening.

Satellite ring

Here we can see the flow from south to north.

Over Delaware, there was already a severe thunderstorm, which could be tracked as the blast cloud expanded after 1 p.m.

Live interactive radar and lightning

See setup and forecast maps below.

Severe thunderstorm watch districts include:

Maryland counties included are

Allegany Anne Arundel Baltimore

Calvert Caroline Carol

Cecil Charles Frederick

Harford Howard Kent

Montgomery Prince George Queen Anne

street. Maryse Talbot Washington

Pennsylvania counties included are

Adams Bedford Pyrex

Dollars carbon Chester

Colombia Cumberland Dauphin

Delaware Franklin Fulton

Huntingdon Juniata Lackawanna

Lancaster Lebanon Lehigh

Lucerne Mifflin Monroe

Montgomery Montour Northampton

Northumberland Perry Philadelphia

Spear Schuylkill Cheating

union Wayne Wyoming

York

Virginia counties included are

Albemarle Arlington August

Clark Culpepper Fairfax

More rude Frederick Green

Highlands King George Loudoun

Madison Nelson orange

page Prince William Rappahannock

Rockingham Shenandoah Spotsylvania

Stafford Warren

Independent cities in Virginia included

Alexandria Charlottesville Fairfax

Waterfalls Church fredericksburg harrisonburg

Manassas Manassas Park Staunton

Waynesboro Winchester

NOAA Severe Storm Risk

This slight risk is level 2 out of 5. It is a possibility, not a promise. There will be scattered thunderstorms, some of which may reach severe levels.

It could produce winds greater than 58 mph, hail larger than an inch in diameter, isolated tornadoes, or even flash flooding.

HRRR model simulation

4pm Friday to 2am Saturday

This is still a weak performance, but it is still a guide to formation. I expect more than what is shown here.

We see the best chance for metro Baltimore after 9 p.m., with storms continuing past midnight.

Shot at 10 p.m

Snapshot at 11 p.m

Shot at midnight

I look forward

Temperature forecast

Saturday morning

Saturday afternoon

GFS model from Saturday to Friday

We will remain unstable with storms possible every day and evening. This will mostly be pulsating with the heat of the day.

I’m showing an extended look at next Friday so we can see how this should direct Hurricane Lee (right side) away from the East Coast.

7 day forecast

The same unstable pattern that will provide us with a chance of rain each day will also help guide Hurricane Lee away from the coast.

It’s not a risk of rain that you’ll get every day, but it’s worth factoring it into your plans.

Explore more

2023 Hurricane Season Forecast with El Niño Watch

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I’ll be following up and recapping our amazing week soon.

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The girl finished. The boy might be back by the fall

Aurora images from Maryland, Delaware and Virginia

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Paraphrasing my post about dyslexia

I know there are some spelling, grammar mistakes, and other glitches sometimes. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even computer errors that I may have overlooked. I’ve made some general statements over the years, but if you’re new here, you may have missed these: I have dyslexia and discovered it during my second year at Cornell. This did not stop me from obtaining my degree in meteorology and being the first to obtain an AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area. One of my teachers told me that I had come this far without knowing it and to not let it be a crutch to move forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes in my proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does it unfairly which makes matters worse. I can also make forecasting errors. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are accurate. “Verbal” things can get sticky. There was no editor who could check my work When I need it And have it ready to send on a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team who helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to correct typos when available. It could be after reading this. I accept this and perhaps it will prove that what you read is in fact from me… It’s part of my magic.

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