Snow over the weekend
A weak area of low pressure crosses this mid-Atlantic region morning.
Some light snow from this system made its way north into the Finger Lakes area. However, it is experiencing dry air, and the general location of the weather system is a little further south than expected.
These factors are supposed to reduce snow accumulations today, as most places will not see more than that An inch or two. Higher elevations across the Southern Tier are the places most likely to see two inches or more.
Another area that could see a few inches is Monroe and Wayne counties, where northeasterly winds will produce some lakeshore improvements to snowfall.
The snow will last for a while Lots of today before dissipating in the late afternoon.
Temperatures will reach the mid 20s this afternoon. This morning, light northeast winds will shift to the north and increase to near 10 mph late this afternoon.
TonightLake effect snow showers will develop off Lake Ontario and possibly Cayuga and Seneca Lakes. Any snow from the Finger Lakes area will fall immediately to the southeast of the lakes. Off Lake Ontario, the snow will start in Monroe County and Ontario, then drift east into Wayne and Seneca Counties, and eventually reach Cayuga County. Locally, it may fall an inch or two overnight.
During the Dawn hoursWinds will shift slightly to the west and the Lake Ontario effect will become more organized, concentrated in Wayne and Cayuga counties. These areas will remain locked within lake effect throughout Saturday, with a sprinkling of wind and storm surge across much of the northern half of the Finger Lakes.
A lack of deep moisture and cold temperatures will limit snowflake growth, resulting in dry, powdery snow that slowly accumulates. However, pockets of Wayne and Cayuga counties could see more than 6 inches of snowfall throughout Saturday, In more widespread quantities in the 2-5 inch range.
Outside of major lake effect areas, accumulations will range from zero across the Southern Tier to pockets of 2-4 inches elsewhere.
The northwesterly winds will intensify Saturday At speeds of 10-15 mph and wind gusts up to 30 mph. With light dry ice, Blowing and drifting It will happen easily. With temperatures only peaking in the mid-10s, wind chills will be near or below zero most of Saturday.
Changing weather pattern
The lake snow will gradually recede Saturday night With some pending flashes Sunday morning. Sunday afternoonWinds will shift to the southwest, and skies should become at least partly cloudy, if not mostly sunny.
It will still be cold on Sunday, with morning lows in the low 10s and afternoon highs in the low to mid 20s. The wind will also remain a bit gusty Early on Sunday, Keep wind chills near or just below zero.
Southwest winds will keep the sky partly cloudy Monday As warm air begins to move into the area. Temperatures will be in the low 10s Monday morning, but by afternoon they should reach the highs and mid 30s.
Clouds will thicken late Monday and winds will shift to the west. Clouds should keep nighttime temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.
Tuesday The weather will be somewhat cloudy with an area of snow arriving during the afternoon. The snow may fall at a steady rate for a few hours but then it will move. Only an inch or two of accumulation is expected.
This snow will be accompanied by a wave of warm air, some of which may turn into rain before it ends Tuesday evening.
Rainfall will return again Tuesday night and early Wednesday. There may be a chance of freezing rain in some pockets before everything turns to normal rain. Rain will continue throughout the day Wednesday.
Temperatures should reach the 40s Wednesday, and again Thursday. Thursday morning looks dry, but showers are possible in the afternoon and evening.
Moderate temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 30s and low 40s for the rest of the country Next week and weekend And in the first part of the following week. The weather still looks unstable during that period as well.
Beyond that, the difference in models is too large to draw any firm conclusions.
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This figure represents the average for the entire Finger Lakes region. Local variations should be expected.
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