Somalia Weekly Weather Forecast – Valid from November 15 to 21, 2023 – Somalia
Heavy rains are expected in parts of Gedo, Bay and Galgadud regions; Moderate to heavy rain is likely over most parts of the country with isolated light rain possible in the Bari area.
Weather forecast for the period from 7 to 13 November 2023
Twenty-two (22) stations observed cumulative rainfall of more than 30 mm with rainfall of at least 1 mm recorded at forty-three (43) stations spread across the country (Chart 1) in the past week. The following twelve (12) stations received heavy rainfall of 60 mm and above over the past week: Bardere 222, Luuq 98.6 mm in Gedo District, Bor Hakabar 127 mm, Qansaks Dheri 74.3 mm, Bardali 65 mm in Bay District, Wanli-Win 110.9 mm in Lower Shabelle region, Belet Win 102.5 mm in Hiran region, Bwale 91.5 mm in Middle Juba, Buluhar 90 mm in Wukwe Galbid, Sheikh 73 mm in Tajdhir, El Bardi 65 mm in Bakool region, and Mogadishu 60.7 mm in Banadir. region.
The heavy and torrential rains that fell on the Juba catchment, especially in the Gedo area, caused the water levels along the entire Juba River to rise to the level of its banks. The resulting overflow caused devastating floods that damaged croplands and road infrastructure, rendering them impassable, and cutting off access to and from cities and other human settlements.
The rain that fell on Bardere was particularly heavy, with up to 123 mm recorded in two days. The 46-year-old steel bridge in the town collapsed as a result of the very high flows. Water levels have also been rising steadily along the Shabelle River over the past week. . Since November 11, the city of Belet Win and its surrounding areas have suffered massive flooding due to overflow after the river reached its maximum carrying capacity (river bank level). Four casualties were reported, and hundreds of people were displaced by the Belet Wen floods. At Pulo Porti, the river level is rising steadily, and currently (15 November) stands only 104 cm to its bank. As the current flood wave moves downstream from Belit Wene, the river level is expected to rise to the bank during this week. Hundreds of people were also affected following reported floods in Indasil, Zagi-Bobi, Bug-Abiso Wadagin. The water level downstream of the Johar River is 120 cm below the river bank level.
Weather forecast for November 15-21, 2023
Heavy rain is expected to fall in parts of Gedo next week.
The Gulf and Galgaduud regions, and moderate to heavy rain in most other parts of the country. However, dry conditions with isolated light rain chances are expected in the Bari area. Much of the forecast rainfall is likely to fall over the Galgaduud and Bay regions between 15 and 17 November 2023. The spatial and climatological variation of the forecast rainfall is described below (Map 1):
Heavy rain Rainfall is expected to range between 100 mm and 150 mm in the western areas of Gedo. Likewise, the city of Al Bayda in the Gulf, along with parts of Hodor, Taiglo and Wajid bordering the Gulf in Bakool Region, are expected to see similarly heavy rainfall. Weather conditions are expected to be similar in Galgadud. In addition, isolated areas of Hiran and Sanaj are also likely to experience heavy rains during this period. The Ethiopian highlands are also expected to receive high to moderate rainfall during the forecast period.
Moderate rain Rainfall is expected to range between 50 mm and 100 mm over large areas in Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Hiran, Galgaduud and Mudug regions. Similar conditions are also expected in the northwestern regions of the country, especially in Laqai and Baki in Awdal, the northern regions of Ghibeli, Sheikh in Tjadir, and large parts of Wukwe Galbed, as well as Sil Afoyin and Sirigavo in the Sanaag region.
Light rain It is expected to be less than 50 mm in several areas in the regions of Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, parts of Dinsoor and Buhakabar in the Bay region, Jalalqsi in the Hiran region, Albor and Dhiri, and parts of Dusamareb in Galgaduud. Part of Mudug, Nogal, Bari, Sol, Sanaag, Zilak and Burama districts in Awdal District, Hargeisa, southern parts of Ghibeli in West West, Burko, Buhudel, most parts of Odoin in Change, most parts of Bosaso, Kandala and coastal parts. Kalula, the isolated past of Escuchopan and Qardo in the Bari region.
Dry conditions Shops are expected to be filled in isolated areas including Sanaag, Talex, Cardo, Escochoban, Kalula, large parts of Bandarbela, northern parts of Ele and isolated parts of Lower Juba.
Temperature forecast: Current forecasts indicate the possibility of high temperatures ranging from 35 degrees Celsius to 45 degrees Celsius in parts of the country. These temperatures are expected to rise in Kismayo and Jammeh districts, as well as the eastern parts of Afmadou district in the Lower Juba region. In addition, Jilib District in the Central Juba Region, and Barawe and Sabale Districts in the Lower Shabelle Region are expected to experience similar high temperatures.
Moderate temperatures are expected to range between 20 and 25 degrees Celsius in the highlands of the central parts of the Sanag region, the northern parts of the Bari region, specifically in Qandala district, and the northwestern parts of the Tajdhir region, specifically in Borko. Distract. As for the rest of the country, moderate temperatures are expected to range between 25 degrees Celsius and 35 degrees Celsius.
Current river levels
Due to heavy rainfall witnessed in the Juba River catchment, the entire area from Dolo to Bwali has maintained high water levels. This ongoing situation has led to severe and devastating floods.
Water levels have also been rising steadily along the Shabelle River. According to observations made on 15 November 2023, river levels at Belet Wen have reached the banks. This led to overflowing of the river banks and flooding in the city and surrounding areas. The water levels downstream, in Pulo Porti and Jawhar, are 104 cm and 120 cm below river bank level, respectively.