Southern Colorado will see a warmer than average November due to El Niño

Southern Colorado will see a warmer than average November due to El Niño

Day after day, our weather is subject to weather systems that extend a few hundred miles and exist for a period of two days to a week. Highs, lows, fronts – these weather makers control whether you need to carry that umbrella or snow scraper with you as you head out the door. But on longer time scales, our average weather is governed by a complex balance of much larger climate patterns known as “teleconnections.” These large atmospheric features extend for thousands of miles, progressing through various “phases” – generally positive to negative, and semi-permanent. For example, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (“MJO”) generally produces periods of enhanced and suppressed precipitation over several months in Colorado. The most well-known teleconnection is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which measures changes in water temperatures in a specific part of the Pacific Ocean, and the resulting effect on weather patterns including Colorado's.

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Temperature patterns with El Nino in winter

As November begins, we see a classic El Niño jet stream pattern, known as a split jet stream. With warm Pacific waters, the subtropical jet stream strengthens and flattens, south of Colorado. Conversely, the polar jet stream tends to be weaker and move northward. When the jet stream moves north, warm air is able to move in from the south, often resulting in above-average temperatures.

Jet stream winds

The MJO is currently being partially “cancelled” by El Niño, so this is the dominant weather influencer this month. So the Climate Prediction Center puts us, and the western United States as a whole, in a well-above-average temperature pattern during November.

Temperature pattern for November

If you've watched meteorologist Alex O'Brien's explanation of El Niño, you may have noticed that the map of the temperature pattern doesn't exactly match the winter El Niño pattern, due to the influence of other teleconnections like the MJO, among other means. Climate variables – Things like snow cover, which reflects light and heat back into space much better than Earth, influence our weather patterns.

Current snow cover

We now have more snow in the northwestern United States than usual which also affects the monthly temperature pattern.

However – November should be 2-3 degrees warmer than average, due to the influence of El Niño.

In the springs, between November 1street And November 30thy Our high temperatures drop from 59 to 47, and our low temperatures drop from 31 to 21. Our average temperature for the entire month, including high and low, is 40 degrees. With an El Niño event, you should expect our average temperature to be around 2-3. Scores above that mark in all areas. This doesn't mean we won't see cold stretches or snow.

In Pueblo, our numbers start at 63 and 29, and drop to 51 and 19 by the end of the month. The greater difference in temperatures between the average high and low temperatures is due to the generally drier air in the Arkansas River Valley compared to the Pikes Peak region. The length of the day decreases by 50 minutes again. While the month will generally see above-average temperatures across the board, generally the long-term signals point to a cooler pattern toward the end of the month as we saw in October.

Snow is the fifthy The snowiest month in the spring with an average of 4.4 inches — slightly more than December's average of 4.1 inches. In Pueblo, this average of 4.1 inches is good for five peopley Snowier too, but you see more snow next month with 4.6 inches on the way to 12y month of the year. In both cities, it is 4y The driest month of the year.

As for precipitation, the Climate Prediction Center includes Colorado in an equal chance zone, meaning we should see near-average precipitation in November. But climate models are showing a cold, wet end to our month, and some other weather excitement is heading our way soon. First Alert's weather team will be here to keep track of everything for you.

Rainfall pattern for November

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Do you have a question or story idea you'd like the First Alert 5 Weather team to consider? Email: Weather@koaa.com

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Do you have a question or story idea you'd like the First Alert 5 Weather team to consider? Email: Weather@koaa.com

Watch KOAA News5 on your time, anytime with the free streaming app available for Roku, FireTV, AppleTV and Android TV. Simply search KOAA News5, download it and start watching.

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